Match Prediction: NaVi - Outsiders | Counter-Strike (CS2)
IEM Road to Rio 2022 European RMR BNatus Vincere and Outsiders will play in the first match, which will put at stake the status of "Legend" of the upcoming Major tournament Intel Extreme Masters Rio Major 2022. The match will be a CIS derby, and therefore it will be especially interesting. Natus Vincere are rightly called the clear favorite of this confrontation, and according to experts from bookmakers, their chance of winning is 72%, which is equal to the odds for a triumph of 1.30. How hard will the fight be for them and will the Outsiders be able to show some kind of struggle in this match? Let's try to figure it out!
Natus Vincere uniform
“Born to Win” have indeed already won this championship twice without any problems and are one step away from their third victory, which is needed to enter the Major tournament with a prize pool of $1,250,000. If Oleksandr 's1mple' Kostylev and his teammates manage to achieve their goal, the team will receive the status of “Legend” and skip the Challengers Stage. After their disastrous performance at ESL Pro League Season 16, the roster is highly motivated, and knowing the character of the players, you can be sure that they will do everything possible to win this match. As part of IEM Road to Rio 2022 Europe RMR B, the team won the fight against Illuminar Gaming with a score of 16-5, and also won the fight with MOUZ, losing the last 11 rounds. The meetings were on Dust 2 and Mirage, where their win rate is 80% and 66.7% respectively. From the latter, we can conclude that the team performs not only on its best maps, but also on the choice of its opponent. An important fact: before the meeting with NAVI MOUZ, we played Mirage 10 times and never lost. Consequently, the second team in the world is now in excellent playing shape and beats opponents purely on skill.
NAVI avoid Vertigo in every possible way and send this card to a permanent ban. Things are bad for them with Ancient along with Inferno. There, their win rate is 33.3% and 44.4% respectively. The team can perform well on other maps. On Overpass and Mirage, the win rate is 62.5% and 66.7%, and Nuke and Dust 2 are their favorite places to fight, as evidenced by the 80% win rate.
History of recent Natus Vincere meetings
IEM Road to Rio 2022 Europe RMR B
- NAVI 16-11 MOUZ
- NAVI 16-5 Illuminar Gaming
Natus Vincere map statistics
- Dust 2 (5 cards) - 80%
- Nuke (5 cards) - 80%
- Mirage (12 cards) - 66.7%
- Overpass (8 cards) - 62.5%
- Inferno (9 cards) - 44.4%
- Ancient (3 cards) - 33.3%
Outsiders uniform
The path of the team, which is ranked 12th in the world ranking according to HLTV, also worked out quite well in this tournament. The team won the fight against Monte with a score of 16-9 and defeated Heroic with a score of 16-12. Moreover, the victory went to Dust 2 and Mirage, which are not listed as the strongest in the arsenal of Outsiders maps. They, just like Natus Vincere, are in good shape and can play on different maps. I’ll note right away that their strong maps are Vertigo and Inferno, on which NAVI show far from the best results. If the Outsiders take any of them in this Bo3 matchup, they will have a chance of taking one card.
If we look at their arsenal of cards in detail, then on Vertigo and Inferno the win rate is 75% and 62.5%, while on Dust 2 and Mirage this figure equates to 57.1%. Ancient, just like in the case of Natus Vincere, qikert and the company do not like at all, and therefore this card is unlikely to appear in this meeting.
History of recent Outsiders meetings
IEM Road to Rio 2022 Europe RMR B
- Outsiders 16-12 Heroic
- Outsiders 16-9 Monte
Outsiders Map Statistics
- Vertigo (kart) - 75%
- Inferno (kart) - 62.5%
- Dust 2 (kart) - 57.1%
- Mirage (kart) - 50%
- Ancient (kart) - 25%
Conclusion
Now both teams are in excellent playing shape and ready to go to the Major tournament as “Legends”, however Natus Vincere will still be stronger than their opponents. They have shown that they can play on any map. The Outsiders demonstrated the same in the previous two matches. And the participants of the meeting have different preferences in the maps, and therefore, in any way, they will find themselves in a situation where they will play on an uncomfortable map for themselves, which will be a match for the opponent. Thus, in my opinion, the probability of exchanging cards and continuing the meeting on the third is quite high. This indicates the passage of the Total over 2.5 cards market. Bookmakers are not sure that this can be the case, and therefore the odds for such an outcome are 2.12. In addition, I believe that the meeting can end with a score of 2-1 in favor of NaVi. If you take a chance and bet on this market, then if you succeed, you can get a reward in the form of a coefficient of 3.40.
Final bet: Total over 2.5 cards with a coefficient of 2.12
Bookmakers & Statistics
At the moment, the majority of bookmakers unanimously see the team NaVi as the favorite of the game with average odds on a victory in the sum of 1.29. Outsiders chances to prevail are evaluated with average odds 6.859 by bookmakers.
How the teams played in the last matches
Last Matches | NaVi | Outsiders |
5 matches (wins) | 3 | 3 |
10 matches (wins) | 6 | 6 |
The statistics of personal battles between teams is also important for successful bets. The participants in the battle before the meeting played 0 matches with each other. And NaVi won 0 times while Outsiders correspondingly became the winner 0 times.