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DreamLeague S19 Stage 2 is drawing to a close and to mark the occasion we decided to make a betting tip on OG - Team Liquid, which will close out the bulk of the games, as there may be re-match fixtures ahead, but more on that later.
To prepare for the betting tournament we used data on the teams from the 6 days of Stage 2 games, as well as from the infernal bo2 battle on Stage 2. We have also analysed the teams' progress in their home games and on the international stage.
Having prepared ourselves, we are ready to tell you who will emerge victorious in the Team Liquid - OG game on the final game day of DreamLeague S19.
Let's begin.
Team Liquid form
We begin the showdown with an analysis of the form of Team Liquid, who will play here as the favorite. The odds on Team Liquid's victory are priced at 1.2, which makes sense.
"Liquid are an extra-class team, one of the strongest representatives of competitive Dota 2 in 2023. It's not so much me talking about this as Liquid's performance this year.
TL have twice been top 1 in Western Europe, and this is the most competitive region in existence. In addition to the double championships in the DPC, Liquid are performing confidently on the international stage.
The debut Major tournament of the season, The Lima Major 2023, ended in an upsetting second place for Team Liquid. Disappointing, not because it was a poor result but because Liquid were forced to play with substitutes. I think everyone remembers that Boxi got very ill then and had to leave the team for a while.
At DreamLeague S19, the Liquid arrived fully armed. This, however, is evident from the results.
- Team Liquid's line-up for DreamLeague S19: miCKe, Nisha, Zai, Boxi, Insania.
Playing the tournament with a full roster, Liquid have almost no problems. Over the two stages of the championship, the Liquid have only given up 1 series against Gaimin Gladiators.
In the first stage, Liquid won their group by a margin. The team finished the stage 11-3 without losing a single b2.
In the second stage, as we mentioned above, the only loss happened. That was the opening game against GG, after which Liquid gave up only 1 card.
The most popular heroes of Team Liquid
On DreamLeague S19, Pangolier was selected as one of the top heroes. The hero has 6 matches and 0 defeats.
Next are Disruptor (5 matches, 80% wins), Io (5 matches, 60% wins). Also Rubick (4 matches, 100% wins), Enchantress (3 matches, 66% wins).
If you believe in Team Liquid in their last match in the DreamLeague before the play-offs - bet on the victory of "liquid" with odds 1.2.
Believe in the ability of OG to put up a fight - see what they can win with. We will review the Liquid opponents' form below.
OG Form
Trying to beat Team Liquid will be OG, who will play as the underdog in this match. The odds of beating the top 4 teams in Europe according to DPC 2023: Tour II are estimated to be around 4.5.
That figure is due to the overall performance of the teams, which is hard to argue with. It is also difficult to argue with the problems of OG.
In the first round of the DPC 2023, OG failed to pass the tiebreaker and were left out of the Lima Major 2023, which was supposed to be a good training for the then newly formed squad. It didn't work out, so a change followed in OG, where Misha's place was taken by Chu.
- OG roster: Yuragi, bzm, DM, Taiga, Chu.
This is the roster OG used to play in the second season of DPC 2023 and they have played in DreamLeague S19. In their home league, the team qualified in the Top 4, thanks to which they will qualify for the upcoming Berlin Major 2023.
At DreamLeague S19, the OGs, who were on the rise after their success in the home league, qualified for the second stage of DreamLeague S19. The team emerged victorious from the round-robin replay, leaving Team Spirit behind.
At DreamLeague S19 Stage 2, before the Long Cog match against Liquid, OG are 2-4. A loss against Team Liquid puts OG's participation in this tournament in jeopardy.
OG's most popular heroes
On DreamLeague S19 OG are most often played by Venomancer, Enchantress and Rubick. All characters have appeared in OG games 5 times each but the first two have a 60% win rate while Rubick has a 40% win rate.
Also taking Monkey King, Doom, Primal Beast, Dark Willow, Disruptor. All have 3 matches each, the first two have 2 wins, the others have only 1.
If you want to believe that OG will win in this match - place a bet with odds in the region of 4. Before we do that, however, we recommend you to take a look at the history of their head-to-head encounters, because it is very eloquent.
History of OG - Team Liquid head-to-head encounters
This season Team Liquid have beaten OG three times and only once given up a card. The only 2-1 win came in the first round of the DPC.
Predicted OG - Team Liquid result
The most logical choice here is Liquid's victory for 1.2, but the odds are too low. It seems that even a one-card variant by OG looks more attractive.
Team Liquid's mindset speaks in favour of a potential OG win. We remember how they played in the last series of Stage 1, when they openly had fun, knowing that they've already made it through. This situation is quite similar, and therefore I'll believe in a fly-in card from OG, who can get their hands on a conditional Morphling and DOOM and eventually crush them.
Bottom line: a +1.5 handicap on OG.
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