Match Prediction: Monaspa - Nigma Galaxy | Dota 2
DPC 2023 Tour 2: WEU Division I (Upper)On to the final match of the matchday in the top flight of Western Europe. Here's an entertaining encounter.
Monaspa and Nigma Galaxy face off. As strange as it may sound, this clash may be considered the focal point of the day, and perhaps of the week.
It's all about the tournament significance of the match. The teams are having a lot of trouble in the standings, and a win here would help the teams to improve their position significantly.
Nigma Galaxy approach the game in sole last place. Team KuroKy has 3 games and 3 losses.
Division newcomers Monaspa have settled into a higher position. The team has 1 win in 3 games.
We're trying to see who will be able to even things up after today's match. Maybe Nigma will join Monaspa - Ooredoo Thunders - OG by winning the first match, or maybe Monaspa will create a good case for themselves to further save their place in the top division.
Nigma Galaxy uniforms
Let's start the parsing of the match by analyzing Nigma Galaxy's playing form. Team KuroKy will have to play this match as favourites, as paradoxical as it may sound.
The bookmakers are not ready to give the advantage to a lower ranked team and therefore keep their hopes on Nigma. The odds of a win for the worst team in the region so far are estimated at around 1.5.
The figure is rather amorphous and stands next to the Nigma Galaxy tag because in a way. Still, the names and status of the teams are drastically different, but in terms of the game, there are many differences, and if they are, they are not in favour of Nigma.
Nigma Galaxy squad
Last season, Nigma Galaxy lost its "face" - Miracle. ATF, who replaced him, was expected to continue the legacy of Miracle, but failed to do so.
Nigma Galaxy players
- SumaiL
- ATF
- MinD_ContRoL
- GH
- KuroKy
Nigma games are all about SumaiL now. Whereas previously it was Miracle who had the good health and desire to play, now it's all down to the "king" SumaiL.
In the new season Nigma switched roles: ATF increasingly go to the offlane (where he plays a greedy three anyway), and MC takes a curry. Minimal impact this has given, but series wins are out of the question.
Also in Nimga came March. Some frantic attempts to "find an edge" and new appointments and tactical role reversals have not been successful.
Nigma Galaxy failed in the first round of the DPC, but still escaped from the collapse. They finished the season 2-5, which was enough to keep their place in the top division.
In the course of DPC 2023: WEU Upper Division - Tour 1, Nigma Galaxy lost to just about anyone, but managed to take two matches towards the end of the season. First, they beat their main rival for the top division, Team Secret, and then they kept OG out of the majors.
Even before the start of DPC 2023: WEU Upper Division - Tour 1 Nigma Galaxy played at BB Xmas Show, where they finished in the top 8, with a direct inevitability to the playoffs.
In the first match of DPC 2023: WEU Upper Division - Tour 2 Nigma Galaxy faced Entity. In the opening match, the Kuro team managed to squeeze a card, but not much else.
In the next game, Nigma faced the champions of the last The International, Tundra Esports. The latter won with a score of 0-2.
The losing streak continued with a match against Team Liquid. Surprisingly Nigma were able to pick up a card, but then things went according to plan: Liquid won the next two cards and the series.
Nigma Galaxy Heroes
Io (6 matches, 66% wins), Death Prophet (5 matches, 60% wins), Chen (5 matches, 60% wins), Dawnbreaker (4 matches, 75% wins), Earth Spirit (4 matches, 75% wins) appeared most often in spades.
Also taking Timbersaw (3 matches, 33% wins), Disruptor (3 matches, 33% wins), Ember Spirit (2 matches, 50% wins).
Monaspa uniforms
Let's move on to a breakdown of Monaspa's playing form. In this game, they will be playing in underdog status.
It's hard to imagine how a team that just made it to the top division will be leading against a team that has told its life story. The bookmakers do, but they are in no hurry to bury the Greeks: The odds of a win are estimated at around 2.4.
Quite a workable base to play against the current Nigma Galaxy. If you consider the level of Monaspa's play this season, and the previous seasons' form, you can probably call this a win.
Monaspa line-up
The rebranding of Brame has gone fairly smoothly and they are now playing in the first round again. They are playing with mixed success, but their lack of experience is taking its toll, as you can tell from some of the series.
Monaspa players
- Nande
- W1sh
- Eleven
- dEsire
- SsaSpartan
Their lack of experience and fear of more formidable opponents was clearly demonstrated in the match against Gaimin Gladiators. There, the Greeks secured the second card and could have ended the series in their favour, but miscalculated and ultimately lost the match.
The main feature of Monaspa's line-up is chaotic. It will be present in this match as well.
Monaspa's performance
Monaspa finished Western Europe's second division with a 5-2 statistic. After the scheduled games, they had to play in round-robin replay for 3 teams.
During the regular season Monaspa managed to beat Ancien Tribe, Alliance, Bald Reborn, Water Rune Enjoyer and most importantly Ooredoo Thunders. They could have claimed the top spot had they not stumbled over D2 Huslters and Ivy, who lost 0-2 each.
Outside of the DPC ecosystem, they played in third-party events. The team finished in the top 6 at European Pro League Season 6, also won Winter Cup 2022.
From the more serious events was BB Universe: Episode I - Comics Zone. In the more serious company, Monaspa failed to prove themselves and finished in the Top-12 at that tournament.
In the first game at DPC 2023: WEU Upper Division Monaspa faced Ooredoo Thunders. Monaspa defeated their arch-rivals 2-0 without much trouble.
In the next match Monaspa played against Entity. The title team was expectedly stronger and ended the match 2-0.
Next Monaspa played against Gaimin Gladiators. What should have been a 2-0 draw turned into a full-blown bout 3 with lingering maps, but the Gladiators proved stronger.
Monaspa Heroes
Playing the meta, without much experimentation, but with the inclusion of "their" characters. The most chosen hero is Rubick (26 matches, 65% wins).
Undying (20 games, 80% wins), Leshrac (18 games, 77% wins), Viper (18 games, 66% wins), Earthshaker (18 games, 55% wins) are often used.
Also playing Snapfire (16 games, 43% wins). Beastmaster (15 games, 40% wins) has about the same disappointing win rate.
History of head-to-head encounters
The teams have not played each other before. The contest in DPC 2023: WEU Upper Division - Tour II will be a debut match.
Result of the match
We expect plenty of mistakes and dirty moments in this game. The two teams show an unstable dota, as mentioned above.
As far as I'm concerned, the winner should still be Nigma. Based on the experience of the last round, we can say that Nigma are able to engage in critical moments, and 0-3 in the standings is very similar to this situation.
Bottom line: Nigma Galaxy win.
Bookmakers & Statistics
All bookmakers have agreed that Nigma Galaxy is the favorite. This can be noticed because odds on them are 1.409. This number in the favor of Monaspa amounts 4.255. Respectively, the last ones are the underdogs of the upcoming match.
What are the successes of the teams in the last games
Last Matches | Monaspa | Nigma Galaxy |
5 matches (wins) | 4 | 2 |
10 matches (wins) | 7 | 2 |
It will also be necessary to mention the history of face-to-face meetings between the opponents.
The competitors have held 0 matches.
In these battles Monaspa got 0 victories while Nigma Galaxy managed to take 0 matches.