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The battle continues at IEM Melbourne 2025. At the title tournament with a prize pool of $300,000 16 teams are fighting.
NaVi and Liquid are among the contenders for significant prizes. However, both teams are in a delicate situation, as they are separated from the play-offs and from the departure from the tournament by one series.
Let's try to understand how the match between NaVi and Liquid will end and who will join Mouz, MongolZ, Falcons and Vitality in the play-offs.
Let's go.
NaVi Form
We open the NaVi vs Liquid match with an analysis of NaVi's form. In this match they play as favourites with odds to win around 1.5.
NaVi took BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023: European RMR A without any problems and qualified for the Major in Paris. Before the only Major of the season, Natus Vincere took the top 4 at the IEM Masters Rio 2023.
The Paris tournament turned out to be a failure for NaVi. Top-11 is hardly a decent result for a team of Natus Vincere's status.
- NaVi roster: w0nderful, b1t, Aleksib, jL, iM.
Before the Long Conner IEM Cologne NaVi made a global Reshuffle, translating the roster into English. In addition to electroNic, Perfecto and npl who left, jL with Apeks, iM with GamerLegion and Aleksib, who previously played for Ninjas in Pyjamas, joined the team.
With the new lineup, NaVi made their debut at BLAST Premier: Fall Groups 2023. "Born to Win" managed to earn a place in the autumn finals by finishing in the top 4-6.
At IEM Cologne 2023 Natus Vincere played two matches. First, they lost to MOUZ with a score of 0-2, and then defeated OG in Bo3. At the end of the top championship NaVi reached the top 8, which can be called a good result for the then renewed roster.
Then there were a number of appearances at major events with very good results. NaVi entered the top 8 at Gamers8 and took the top 2 at ESL Pro Legue Season 18.
The key tournament of the season for "yellow-black" can be called IEM Sydney 2023. There NaVi for the first time in a long time played without their main headliner S1mple, whose place was temporarily taken by coach B1ad3. Andrew tried, but NaVi could not jump above the top-12.
After S1mple left the active roster, NaVi started the game with w0nderful. He made his debut for the Yellow-Blacks at BLAST Premier: World Final 2023. Natus Vincere played him very well, reaching the top 4. In the match for the Grand Final Ledgeili future champions of the tournament and the best team in the world Vitality.
The year 2024 started with high notes - they became the best at PGL Major Copenhagen 2024: European Qualifier A. However, further on, the performance slipped a bit and NaVi took the top-12 at ESL Pro League Season 19 and IEM Dallas 2024, as well as the top-2 at BLAST Premier: Spring Final 2024.
Esports World Cup 2024 NaVi Long Competed with a solid 2-0 win over FURIA. Entering the play-offs, "born to win" fell to FaZe Clan in the first round. NaVi were again stronger than FaZe, but this time they won with the score 2-0. Then there was a rather difficult match against MOUZ, where NaVi lost on the first map with the score 1-13, but then they got together and made it to the grand final. In the final match they played against G2 Esports, where they won 2-1, thus winning their second prestigious tournament of the year.
At the BLAST Premier: Fall Groups 2024 NaVi Long Competed with a confident victory over BIG. But against Liquid "born to win" did not fare well, losing in a dramatic situation without defuse kits on the 3rd map. In the re-match with BIG they were stronger again, confidently shutting down the German club with a score of 2-0. However, they failed to move further into the top 6 at BLAST Premier: Fall Groups 2024.
At the ESL Pro League Season 20 NAVI became the winners of Group A, passing Lynn Vision, NiP and Eternal Fire without any problems. NaVi started the ESL Pro League Season 20 playoffs with a victory over their principal rival - Team Spirit - and a confident 2-0 win. Next, they defeated G2 Esports (2-1) and defeated Eternal Fire in the EPL S20 final with a score of 3-2.
At IEM Rio 2024 NaVi qualified from Group A in second place, Ledgeiv Furia. In the play-offs, they beat Vp (2-0) and Heroic (2-1) in turn. And in the grand finals NaVi defeated MOUZ (3-1), thus becoming the champion of a major tournament for the 4th time in a season.
However, NaVi did not manage to be the best everywhere and everywhere. For example, at BLAST Premier: World Final 2024, where "Born to Win" failed to qualify for the play-offs.
At PW Shanghai Major 2024: European RMR A, NaVi won two matches, beating Fnatic and Sinners, but then lost to MOUZ in the match to qualify for the Major. However, they managed to reach the Elimination Stage at Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024 at the second attempt, beating sAw 2-0.
Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024: Elimination Stage Natus Vincere Long They started with a victory over Liquid, and then lost to MIBR and Spirit. They knocked GamerLegion out of the tournament, but fell short against Heroic, leaving the World Championship one step away from the play-offs.
BLAST Bounty Season 1 Long They started off with a win over Imperial Female and then defeated Astralis. In play-offs they played against paiN and it was a very difficult match for the Ukrainian team, but still they won. And then - Spirit, losing 1-2 and TOP-4 in the end.
NaVi got to IEM Katowice 2025 by direct invitation, they started the group stage with a confident victory over FURIA with the score 2-0. Then a key 2-1 win over Spirit and an easy win against MongolZ in the match for seeding in the play-offs. However, after getting straight into the second round of play-offs, NaVi failed to cope with their eternal rival Spirit and ended up in the top 4.
At ESL Pro League Season 21 NaVi Long Sogpeg started with an unexpected defeat by sAw, but then, albeit with difficulty, managed to take the series against TYLOO and paiN. In the play-offs match they beat G2, and they beat them 2-0. But at the actual Long Segment play-offs - a 0-2 loss to MongolZ and a final top-8 finish.
At BLAST Lisbon 2025 NaVi Long Sogpeg started with a match against FURIA. They won with the score 2-0. Then won a crucial match against MongolZ (2-1). In the match for seeding in play-offs Ledge and Eternal Fire. The play-offs did not last long: "Born to Win" lost in the first round against Team Spirit, taking the top 6.
They started IEM Melbourne 2025 with a tough win over MIBR (2-1). In the match to qualify for the play-offs on the top grid Ledge and Falcons with a 1-2 score. Finding themselves in the last chance grid, they beat FlyQuest in a very tough match.
NaVi Mappool
The best NaVi map for 3 months is Inferno. The team played there 5 times with a win rate of 60 per cent.
On Mirage and Anubis NaVi has 50% wins. On Ancient and Nuke the team played 4 matches each, on the others - 2.
Vertigo is not playing.
Liquid's form
We continue the analysis of the match Liquid - NaVi with the analysis of Liquid's form. Here Liquid are playing as favourites with odds to win around 2.3.
The American club had a pretty productive 2023 season. Played in a lot of tournaments, but high results were a rarity.
They started the year with a top-4 finish at IEM Katowice 2023, where they reached the top 4. Next was the equally good BLAST Premier: Spring American Showdown with a similar top-4, and then BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023: American RMR followed by a top-3 and a trip to the main tournament of the year.
Unfortunately for Liquid, that's where their results ended. At BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023, the team made it to the top 8 and that was their biggest achievement of the year.
After making it to the legends stage at the only Major tournament of the season, Liquid played at a lot of big events. These included IEM Dallas 2023 with a top-12 ranking, BLAST Premier: Fall Groups 2023 with a top-9 ranking, and IEM Master Cologne with a top-12 ranking.
At the end of the season they played at Gamers8 2023, finishing in the top 16 and ESL Pro League Season 18, finishing in the top 20. Closed the year with a second place finish at BLAST Premier: Fall American Showdown 2023.
- Team Liquid roster: NAF, YEKINDAR, skullz, cadiaN, Twistzz.
A string of failures at major championships has caused major roster changes. Such that Liquid in 2024 can be called the "Dream Team", but the status still has to be earned.
2024 began with qualifiers for the American RMR. They came out, which is not surprising. They also tried to qualify for IEM Chengdu 2024, but were not successful: Ledge and M80 made it to the finals of the qualifiers. However, they got a slot and made it to the top 6 at the tournament. The main performance in the 2024 season was PW Shanghai Major 2024, where Liquid finished in the top 8, which is not bad.
In the 2025 season, Team Liquid Long Competed with a top-16 finish at BLAST Bounty Spring 2025: Closed Qualifier and a top-12 finish at IEM Katowice 2025.
At ESL Pro League Season 21 Long Co-headlined with a loss to Falcons, but cameback against FURIA and Eternal Fire. Later lost to MOUZ, which brought them to a 2-2 score. In the play-offs match, they defeated 3DMax. In the play-offs itself, they lost to the future champions from Vitality in the first round.
Liquid attended BLAST Lisbon 2025, where they finished in the top 12. At PGL Bucharest 2025 also did not go well: Long Sogpegov started with a loss from Legacy (0-2), and then lost to Vp (0-2). They lost to MongolZ and took a well-deserved top 16 spot.
At IEM Melbourne 2025 Liquid beat Vp, but lost to Vitality, and then defeated MIBR already in the bottom set.
Team Liquid's Mapple
Team Liquid's top 1 map in the last 3 months is Mirage. Liquid has a mind-blowing winrate of 92% with 13 games played.
They also played on Inferno, where they won 5 matches out of 7 games. Nuke is also in plus winrate, where the "ninjas" have 3 wins from 5 matches.
The most not favoured map for Team Liquid will be Vertigo. There they have 6 maps and only 1 win.
History of head-to-head meetings between Liquid and NaVi
Over the past year, the teams have played each other 4 times. The score is 2-2.
Predicted result of NaVi vs Liquid at IEM Melbourne 2025
In this match I expect an even game. NaVi are not shining on the Long Season, and Liquid have not caught stars from the sky for a long time. I am waiting for a full-fledged Bo3.
Bottom line: total +2.5.
#83
1WIN
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