Match Prediction: Virtus.pro - Heroic | Dota 2
DreamLeague Season 22Glad to see you on EGamersWorld.
Big Dota 2 is back on our screens. The group stage of DreamLeague Season 22 is starting - one of the most important tournaments of the 2024 season, during which 16 teams will compete for a total prize pool of $1,000,000 and 18,550 EPT Points.
Let's talk about Group A at DreamLeague Season 22. Specifically, in this case, about the match between Vp and Heroic.
We're trying to figure out if either team can prove stronger in their debut match at DreamLeague Season 22 and earn the first victory within the extensive group stage.
Let's go.
Vp's Form
Let's analyze Vp's gameplay form in this match. In this match, they are playing as the first seed, with odds of around 2.4 for victory.
Vp stagnated throughout the past competitive year. This was reflected in the team's performance throughout the season.
In the first DPC season, Vp took the 4th spot, not showing a worthy game. They played the season somewhat ambiguously, but not necessarily poorly.
The second DPC season 2023: EEU Division 1 ended exactly the same. The team once again took the 4th spot and once again fell short of making it to The Berlin Major 2023.
- Vp's lineup: Kiritych, squad1x, Noticed, sayuw, Fng.
The third DPC tour for Vp turned out to be identical to the first two. Vp again took the TOP-4, which, generally speaking, cannot be considered a result.
In addition to "average" positions in the DPC league, Vp played in external championships. This included events like the Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes, where they took TOP-3-4, and even more serious tournaments like the Riyadh Masters 2023. The latter became the largest event in Vp's portfolio, but the Eastern European residents didn't achieve much: resulting in TOP-20.
Vp qualified for The International 2023 through the Eastern Europe qualifiers. In the grand final, they defeated One Move with a score of 3-0.
The International 2023 itself went fairly well for Vp. Being one of the main contenders for elimination from the tournament, Vp secured the 4th place, thus making it to the playoffs.
Before this, Virtus.pro played for seeding in the playoffs against TSM. Being the second seed there, the Eastern European team fairly easily defeated their counterparts, much to everyone's surprise.
The match between Spirit and Vp turned out to be surprisingly interesting. What was supposed to end with an easy 2-0 in favor of "dragons" turned into a struggle, where Spirit had to make a comeback with a score of 0-1 in the series.
Next, Vp faced BB Team in the TOP-8 match of The International 2023, and that was the end of their journey in the main tournament of the year. Following that, they participated in significantly less prestigious tournaments, such as Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show, victory in the qualifiers for BB Dacha, DL Season 22, TOP-3 at ESL Birmingham 2024: EEU Qualifiers, and TOP-12 at BB Dacha Dubai 2024.
Virtus.pro's Most Popular Heroes
The most picked hero for Virtus.pro remains Disruptor (9 matches, 55% win rate). Following closely behind is Undying (8 matches, 50% win rate).
VP also picks Shadow Fiend (4 matches, 75% win rate), Silencer (4 matches, 50% win rate), Lina (4 matches, 50% win rate).
Heroic's Form
Continuing the match analysis with Heroic's gameplay form. In this match, Heroic plays as the second seed, with odds of around 6 for victory.
Heroic is a new name on the Dota 2 competitive scene. While the team is well-known outside of Valve's MOBA professional scene, the club didn't rush to sign a roster in this discipline. That changed in 2023.
Heroic entered Dota 2 by signing the South American mix D2 Hustlers, with some adjustments. The final debut roster for Heroic looked like this:
- Heroic lineup: K1, 4nalog, Davai Lama, Scofield, KJ.
Each player is fairly well-known in their position, and such a team should theoretically work. At least on the local scene, within their region, Heroic looks decent, though not perfect.
During the 2024 competitive season, the club secured TOP-8 at DreamLeague Season 22: South America Open Qualifier #1, TOP-2 at BB Dacha Dubai 2024: NA and SA Closed Qualifier, then won DL Season 22: South America Open Qualifier #2 and DL Season 22: South America Closed Qualifier, defeating BOOM 2-0 in the grand final.
The last tournament before participating in DL Season 22 was the qualifiers for ESL Birmingham 2024 from South America. There, Heroic once again defeated BOOM in the grand final, thus securing a slot in the first major LAN tournament of the year.
Heroic's Most Popular Heroes
Nature's Prophet and Rubick appeared most frequently in drafts. Both heroes were picked 4 times and have a 100% win rate.
The same number of appearances were seen from Vengeful Spirit, Beastmaster, and Tusk. They won 3 out of 4 matches.
Head-to-Head History: Heroic - VP
Previously, the teams have not played against each other in direct encounters. This match will be the debut head-to-head confrontation for the teams.
Predicted Outcome of the Match Vp - Heroic at DreamLeague Season 22
In this, I don't see a team capable of closing the series with a score of 2-0. As for me, the most logical outcome would be a draw, but in the initial matches of the group stage, I would opt for the safest options. For me, it's +1.5 on Heroic.
Conclusion: Handicap +1.5 on Heroic.
Virtus.Pro is the 14th team in the world ranking. The team's result at The International 2023 was a surprise. Out of nowhere, the guys managed to get to 7th-8th place. After such a great result, taking into account not the highest achievements during the year, the organisation decided not to change the squad. The current year has already been extremely convincing. They took the only slot at the closed qualifications for BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024 and managed to get a slot at the closed qualifications for DreamLeague Season 22 from the 2nd place right behind Spirit. But at ESL One Birmingham 2024 closed qualifications could not pass. They lost in the decisive match for the slot to Klim Sani4, which of course made us doubt ourselves a bit. BetBoom Dacha did not do too well. They took one of the last places.
Heroic - the guys entered the competitive scene of Dota only in January this year, so it's too early to judge them. But the lineup looks quite playable with quite big names in the team. Players such as K1, 4nalog, Davai Lama, Scofield and KJ in roles respectively.
The VPs at the dacha have not impressed at all. I'm willing to believe for a good kef of a win on the card from an outsider.
I'm a prognosticator, it's what I do for a living. I devote all my time to it. No other interests.
I have been doing this for quite a long time and have achieved some success in it. Whether to believe me or not is up to everyone. But why not give it a try? Maybe you like this kind of life!
Prediction: +1.5 Heroic!
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VP vs. Heroic
On Sunday 25.02.2024 at 14:00 there will be a BO2 Dota 2 match between Virtus.pro (Russia) and Heroic (Peru). The event takes place in the format of Stage 1 - Group A of the DreamLiga Season 22 tournament. According to the list of odds for Virtus.pro vs Heroic, there is no clear favourite in the match, with bookmakers giving the Virtus.pro team a 39% chance of winning and Heroic a 16% chance of winning. According to the analysis of individual indicators, Heroic is an order of magnitude stronger than VP. The opening match of the tournament. The teams have no head-to-head meetings and meetings against common opponents.
Prediction:
In this match for me the clear favourite is VP, the season has not started well for VP and Heroic is strong in their region, I think Heroic have a good chance of picking up one card here, let's play it safe and bet on their head-to-head.
Bet:
Heroic (+1.5) - 12.5% of the pot (~coeuf 1.55)
The analysis was made with the help of a special programme, winrate 75%.
More predictions and details in my telegram channel, not all predictions I have time to give here:
https://t.me/foxkingcast
Bookmakers & Statistics
Now, the majority of bookmaker companies believe in Virtus.pro victory. Odds on them are equal to 2.097. According to bookmakers data, Heroic are the outsider and odds on their victory amounts 5.779.
Team statistics in recent matches
Last Matches | Virtus.pro | Heroic |
5 matches (wins) | 3 | 4 |
10 matches (wins) | 5 | 7 |
It will also be necessary to mention the history of face-to-face meetings between the opponents. The participants in the battle before the meeting played 0 matches with each other. And Virtus.pro won 0 times while Heroic correspondingly became the winner 0 times.