Match Prediction: PSG.LGD - Team Aster | Dota 2

Welcome back to EGamersWorld.

Slowly but surely, we are getting to the climax of DreamLeague Season 20 Group Stage 2. We have two scheduled group stage matches to watch and one of them is the Chinese derby between Team Aster and PSG.LGD.

As part of DreamLeague Season 20, the match has grown in importance. It's not just another round of the Chinese DPC league, where both Aster and PSG.LGD are consistently in the top 4 and qualify for the Major, but a game in the setting of an international event with a large prize pool and the prospect of a trip to the top-tier Riyadh Masters 2023.

At DreamLeague S20, the teams had a similar Long Corner, but a rather different continuation. PSG.LGD reached the play-offs early, while Team Aster, on the penultimate day of play, were not too happy.

Let's try to see which team will be stronger and win this perhaps not decisive, but colourful derby.

Let's go.

Form PSG.LGD

We'll start the showdown with an analysis of the form of PSG.LGD. In this encounter, the team is singled out as the favourite of the meeting.

The odds of success for PSG.LGD are estimated at 1.3. Absolute dominance on paper.

Before the Long Conger DreamLeague Season 20, I'm sure no one would have given such an odds on PSG.LGD. As the season progressed, PSG.LGD were showing results that were far from high.

PSG.LGD have shown themselves in good stead exclusively in the home DPC 2023: China Upper Division. Their entire portfolio in 2023 consists of top-3 regional league appearances: two top-1s (DPC 2023: Tour 1 and DPC 2023: Tour 3) and a top-2 at DPC 2023: Tour 2.

On the international stage, PSG.LGD failed The Lima Major 2023, where they crashed out in the first round of play-offs. The second Major season was no better than the first, PSG.LGD again flew out in the first round of play-offs taking the top-12 in the tournament. In addition, the team missed out on DreamLeague S19.

• PSG.LGD: shiro, NothingToSay, niu, planet, y`.

PSG.LGD reached the DreamLeague Season 20 play-offs in absentia, the team's highest-profile result all year. That's a minimum of Top 4 at an international event and for the current PSG.LGD this result is great.

In this match, there's not much to get worked up about. The ticket to the play-offs is already booked, but the situation with Aster is completely different.

Most Popular PSG.LGD Heroes

The most frequent guest of the PSG.LGD picks at DreamLeague S20 is Techies (5 matches, 60% wins). Next are Void Spirit and Magnus with 4 matches and 75% wins.

Opponents should watch out for Phantom Lancer (3 matches, 100% wins). Skywrath Mage (3 matches, 66% wins), and Ember Spirit (3 matches, 66% wins) are also peaking.

Aster Form

In the first round of DPC 2023, Team Aster "gave away" the regional lead, Ledgeiv on the PSG.LGD. Following a top-2 at DPC 2023: China Upper Division, Team Aster went to Peru, where they played an "average" game, with Monet and company finishing in the top-8.

In the second round of DPC 2023: China Upper Division Team Aster finished in the Top 4, which was already noticeably worse than last time. However, it was enough to qualify for the Berlin Major 2023. At the Berlin tournament, SumaiL, the club's current star, made his debut for Aster. Truth be told, the debut was not the most successful (Top 8), but as a test for the new mid-laner - fine.

Before that, Aster played at DreamLeague S19. In DreamLeague S19, Aster were in the top 9-10. Then, after some frustrating tiebreaks, they failed to make it out of the group.

After that was DPC 2023: China Tour 3. The home league ended in third place for Aster, which can hardly be called a successful result.

• Team Aster roster: Monet, SumaiL, Xxs, BoBoKa, Siamese C.

Everything seems to be strange for Team Aster. At the Berlin Major it seemed that SumaiL's arrival literally turned everything upside down and now Aster will rock. In fact, everything turned out to be much less rosy.

Aster were deflated and it is not entirely clear why. The team barely qualified for the second group stage of the tournament, jumping literally into the last carriage of the departing train.

In addition, Aster became the first team to leave DreamLeague Season 20 early. Now they don't need anything and can play bravely. But what's the point?

The most popular Aster heroes

The most frequent picks were Rubick - 6 games, 50% wins. Keeper of The Light and Storm Spirit were also picked (5 games, 80% wins).

There was Monkey King, Underlord, Terrorblade, Pugna (4 matches, 75% wins each).

History of head-to-head encounters

Previously, the teams played each other frequently. In 2023 alone, they played each other 5 times and not once did Aster score a win, only managed to take a draw in Berlin.

Match outcome

In this encounter, despite the dramatically different results, I expect a more or less equal game. This is because the teams are used to each other and know the rivals' weaknesses. However, this will not stop PSG.LGD from getting another win, but I don't think it will be a clean sweep.

Bottom line: +1.5 on Aster.