Match Prediction: PSG.LGD - Aster.Aries | Dota 2

Competitive dota is gaining momentum in every corner of the world. The Chinese region is no exception.

China has had the most unfortunate situation. In the last DPC round, the region produced one of the worst, if not the worst, results in the history of competitive Dota 2.

The best result for Chinese teams was a Top 8 at the Lima Major 2023. Since the Peruvian major, around 50 professional players have been banned, some of whom are first division residents. EHOME, for example, quit Dota altogether, but that's not the point now.

Now the duel between PSG.LGD and Aster.Aries. The former are making their tournament debut, while the latter are still in first place in the table.

We will try to see which team will be stronger and earn the points they need to continue to gain points and potentially qualify for The Berlin Major 2023.

PSG.LGD form

Let's start the parsing of the match with the form of PSG.LGD. In this encounter, they will have to play as favourites.

PSG.LGD still has a margin of safety, and bookmakers continue to believe in the team's success. The odds on PSG.LGD to win are around 1.18.

The figure is pretty crushing, hinting at a quick sweep over the underdogs. I wouldn't be in a hurry to call PSG.LGD the unqualified leader and future winner, as this is the first match of the season.

PSG.LGD line-up

One of the key arguments not in favour of PSG.LGD is the roster of PSG.LGD. Not only was the team reshaped at the beginning of the 2023 season, but after the Lima Major 2023 it changed one more player.

Players of PSG.LGD

  • shiro
  • NothingToSay
  • zeal
  • planet
  • y`

At the start of the season the main headliners of the previous years Ame, Faith_bian and XinQ have left the team. In a hurry, the team has found replacements for the departed legends.

Ex-players from EHOME and CDEC took over. Initially, it was not too bad, but then Lima happened.

At the Lima Major 2023, the players were forced to play with a replacement for the third position, but it turned out badly and PSG.LGD changed the "three" again. The newcomer was Zeal, who previously played for questionable teams like Myth Avenue Gaming, EHOME, ENTs and so on.

PSG.LGD's performance

In the first round of DPC 2023, PSG.LGD managed to pick up a regional win. The team finished the regular round with a 6-1 score, before beating Team Aster in replay.

At the Lima Major 2023, things were much worse. PSG.LGD failed to qualify for the top round of the playoffs. The team finished in 5th place with a score of 8-8.

In the first round of the playoffs of the Lima Major 2023, PSG.LGD met their bitter rival Team Spirit. A colourful series ended in defeat for the Chinese club.

PSG.LGD heroes

PSG.LGD appreciated Primal Beast (6 games, 66% wins), Tiny (6 games, 50% wins), Leshrac (6 games, 50% wins), Enigma (5 games, 60% wins). Love Alchemist, introducing him to the meta: 2 games, 100% win rate.

Aster.Aries form.

Let's continue the match review with a breakdown of the playing form of Aster.Aries. The team is seen as an underdog.

The bookmakers are not ready to believe in the success of the "young" Aster division. The odds on the club's victory are estimated at around 4 and a half.

The gap is large, and the figure hints at an imminent loss for Aries. There's every reason to think so, but we shouldn't write them off - after all, Aster.Aries are still in the top 1 of the division.

The Aster.Aries line-up

Aries and PSG.LGD have a similar roster history. "The Aster youth made a few substitutions, but they will not affect the game that comprehensively.

Aster.Aries players

  • Ulu
  • White_Album
  • ShengSi
  • TK
  • RedPanda

Aries have been in action since December 2022. The squad has had time to gain experience in the Chinese region and have spent a season together in the upper division of the DPC.

The players themselves have what, no experience of playing on the big stage. White_Album also represented Team Aster at The International 2021 which is already an indicator, while RedPanda played for RNG and Elephant along with Maybe and other local tops.

Aster.Aries' performance

Aster.Aries has an interesting story. The team finished 6th last season, meaning they lost their top-flight slot, but due to the confusion following the banning of 50 players and the departure of EHOME from the Dota, they have regained their place at the top.

The Aries played to a 1-6 scoreline last round. However, the dismal series stats had a double bottom with Aries winning 6 cards out of 18 played, and that's something.

In the new round, Aster.Aries managed to make their mark in the opening game. Their first opponent was the Outsiders From China, who had been promoted to the Elite League from the Second Division.

Aries had no trouble closing out the series. They won 2-0, with 21 minutes on the clock.

Aster.Aries heroes

The most popular Aries hero is the Phoenix. He has been picked 7 times and has a 42% win rate. He's also favored by Tusk, though his win percentage is not very high. Out of 7 games he has won only 1.

Leshrac (6 matches, 83% wins), Tiny (6 matches, 33% wins), Batrider (5 matches, 40% wins), Broodmother (4 matches, 75% wins).

History of head-to-head encounters

The teams played each other in the first round of DPC 2023: China Upper Division. PSG.LGD have now won 2-0.

Result

I see PSG.LGD as the winner of this contest, however I am not prepared to give them a 2-0 lead. I think Aster.Aries will manage to show their teeth and squeeze one card away.

The important thing is that PSG.LGD are playing their first official match in the new lineup, while Aster.Aries have had their hands full in the last round and have already warmed up in the new one. They can clinch the card against the top side, as they did many times last season.

Bottom line: +1.5 on Aries.

PSG.LGD сыграют против Aster.Aries: начало пути ЛГД в весеннем DPC-туре - попробую спрогнозировать исход данного поединка.

PSG.LGD - заняли 9-12 место на прошедшем Мажоре в Лиме. Да, на многое повлияла замена. Они решили изменить состав и заменили оффлейнера. Вместо Yq за них теперь играет zeal, который выступал с shiro и pLanet за EHOME. Думаю изменения в составе не особо значительные и они должны продолжать проходить на Мажоры. Конкуренция сейчас в Китае очень сомнительная. Фактически нынешний состав PSG.LGD - это EHOME 2-летней давности.

Aster.Aries - состав у ребят таков: Ulu, White Album, TK, Redpanda, ss. Середнячок в китайском дивизионе, ни про какие Мажоры речь не идет, для них главная цель это остаться в первом дивизионе. Проводить матчи с переворотами и"американскими горками" на графиках и получать по несколько тысяч долларов.

Прогноз на матч PSG.LGD и Aster.Aries

Дебютный матч для PSG.LGD должен быть важным, тем более после изменений в составе. И должны они чисто и стабильно закрыть 2:0. Aster.Aries славятся какими-то крутыми иимбовыми стратегиями от RedPanda, но уверен этого не хватит против PSG.LGD.

Прогноз: PSG.LGD закроет Aster.Aries со счетом 2:0

Больше ставок на Dota 2 в Telegram - t.me/flzbets

Now, the majority of bookmaker companies believe in PSG.LGD victory. Odds on them are equal to 1.102. According to bookmakers data, Aster.Aries are the outsider and odds on their victory amounts 5.733.

What are the successes of the teams in the last games

Last MatchesPSG.LGD Aster.Aries
5 matches (wins)11
10 matches (wins)32

Gamblers will definitely be interested in the statistics of personal meetings between the teams. The teams played 4 matches with each other before. And PSG.LGD won 4 times while Aster.Aries correspondingly became the winner 0 times.