Match Prediction: LGD Gaming - DAWN | Dota 2

We continue to get acquainted with the best representatives of the Chinese region, who will fight in the first division for $205,000 and 690 DPC points. In the new season, China will surprise, and our match is one of those.

The first game day will be closed by PSG.LGD and DAWN Gaming. Once, with such a sign, it was possible to state the victory of the first without much thought, but now, the situation has changed.

The off-season had a very serious impact on the balance of power in Chinese DotA and the changes in the PSG.LGD roster are one of the key factors behind the monumental changes. We understand what happened to the team and why the absolute favorite last season, in the new year, risks becoming an “average”.

Form PSG.LGD

Let's start the analysis of the match with the analysis of the form of PSG.LGD. The team in this match will perform in the status of a favorite.

The bookmakers estimate the success of PSG.LGD with odds around 1.1. Such a serious belief in the title club is not entirely clear.

Of course, the glory of the past years and the status of the eternal favorite, the strongest team of modern Dota in recent years, and so on, have been assigned to the tag. But the last performances of the previous roster and the uncertainty that the new roster radiates do not make it possible to call PSG.LGD the favorite of the season with confidence.

PSG.LGD roster

Having devoted so much time to the PSG.LGD roster, it's time to move on to discussing it. The performers are as follows:

• shiro
• NothingToSay
• 项羽
• planet
• y`

Of the legendary Chinese line-up, only NothingToSay and y` remained in the ranks. Now they have to guide former EHOME members shiro and planet, as well as former CDEC member 项羽, to victory.

The problem of the new roster is not so much in the players themselves, but in their predecessors. Comparing Ame with shiro or xinQ with planet will not work with all the desire - these are different values.

I'm skeptical about the potential scenario for the "youth" to flourish under the leadership of y` and NTS. Yes, xiao8 remains in business, who will try in every possible way to build from the PSG.LGD roster not just a fighting, but a champion lineup, but whether he will succeed is an open question.

Performance of PSG.LGD

Being a title team last season, PSG.LGD showed similar results. After 3rd place at the Intel World Open Beijing, PSG.LGD started playing as expected.

The team easily won the DPC CN 2021/2022 Tour 1: Division 1 and just as easily closed the regional finals of the first round, which are a kind of analogue of the first major of the season.

This was followed by an incomprehensible TOP-6 at OGA Dota PIT Season 6: China, and then another victory in the regional DPC league. And again with the subsequent championship at the regional finals.

In the third round, PSG.LGD took 4th place, which was the worst result in the regional DPC league since the beginning of 2021. The oversight was covered at RIyadh Masters 2022, where PSG.LGD defeated Spirit 2-0 in the final.

PSG.LGD failed to repeat the success of Riyadh Masters - Spirit responded, but already in a major in Arlington. PGL Arlington Major 2022 ended for PSG.LGD in 2nd place.

Having entered The International 2022 directly, PSG.LGD acted as one of the main contenders for victory, but in the end they were not even the first team in China. The wards of xiao8 finished the tournament in the TOP-6, after which major changes began in the roster.

Heroes PSG.LGD

In patch 7.32, PSG.LGD managed to play only at The International 2022. There the team played in the meta.

PSG.LGD valued Primal Beast (6 games, 66% win rate), Tiny (6 matches, 50% win rate), Leshrac (6 matches, 50% win rate), Enigma (5 matches, 60% win rate).

Dawn Gaming Uniform

Let's continue the review of the match with an analysis of Dawn Gaming's form. They will appear here in the status of an absolute outsider.

The bookmaker estimates Dawn's chance to win with odds around 8. Such a figure is quite appropriate in the presence of PSG.LGD on the signs, and even more so in a match with not the most eminent counterpart.

Dawn is not exactly the most famous counterpart. In truth, it is not yet entirely clear who they are.

The slot at DPC 2023 Dawn received by absorbing it from CDEC. Such are the rules of the game, what can you do.

Dawn Gaming roster

The Dawn roster consists of the inhabitants of the TIR-2 scene trying to do something and somehow cling to success. The chance, here it is, is real, you just need to beat PSG.LGD and then confidently walk through the first division.

Dawn Gaming players

• idc
• ex
• Son Goku
• Docres
• Ms

Dawn Gaming's roster, like most Chinese teams in the new season, looks like a hodgepodge of all possible Second Division teams. Here you have former LBZS with Ybb Gaming and other Sparking Arrow Gaming.

The main headliner of the roster is MS. He has been playing on the professional stage since 2017, managed to visit clubs like EHOME, LGD.int and then played for the aforementioned Ybb and Sparking Arrow Gaming.

Is there potential in this roster? Doubtful.

The only thing that instills confidence in this five is the unavailability of the tops after the reshuffle. For large teams like PSG.LGD, this process can become difficult, as the team is built for the future, but a team like Dawn Gaming gathers and breaks up literally every season.

History of personal confrontations

The teams did not play each other in official matches. This match will be the debut face-to-face confrontation between the teams.

Match outcome

No matter how many questions the PSG.LGD roster raises, they are still a formidable, albeit weakened, opponent for every team in the top division. For teams of the Dawn rank, PSG.LGD will be an unstoppable force at all.

In theory, you can take +1.5 on Dawn Gaming hoping that PSG.LGD will not have time to create at least minimal conditions for dominance in this particular match. I will do just that, because taking the victory of PSG.LGD for 1.1 is pretty stupid, but cheating a potential card from a total outsider, and even in the first match of the season, is quite possible.

Outcome: Dawn Gaming will take the map (handicap +1.5).