The matchup between MOUZ and Falcons at the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 promises to be one of the most intriguing clashes of the stage, as two teams with dynamic playstyles and contrasting form trajectories face off. MOUZ continue to hold their position as a stable upper-tier contender, yet they consistently struggle against opponents with higher individual firepower. Falcons, on the other hand, are showcasing some of the strongest form in the world, boasting a powerful map pool and repeatedly proving their strength in this matchup. This is why the encounter draws heightened attention from analysts — it is not only important in terms of tournament progression, but also indicative of the current balance of power between the teams.
How the bookmakers see it: Falcons as favorites
Bookmakers consider Falcons clear favorites in this match. The team demonstrates stable form, has a strong map pool, and has won all four of their most recent meetings against MOUZ. Against this backdrop, MOUZ’s chances look significantly lower, with analysts expecting another Falcons victory in a bo3 series.
Current form of MOUZ: What to expect from MOUZ
Over the past three months, MOUZ have played 37 maps, winning 22 — a solid result, though not without dips in performance. Last month, the team competed at IEM Chengdu 2025 and finished 4th, which aligns with their current level: a strong upper-tier lineup that nevertheless struggles against top-level opposition.
- MOUZ roster: torzsi, xertioN, Jimpphat, Brollan, Spinx
In their last five matches, MOUZ won only two — against B8 and PARIVISION — while losing to Spirit, Falcons, and Vitality. This indicates that MOUZ currently struggle against teams with stronger individual quality and more consistent mid-round decisions.
Current form of Falcons: What to expect from Falcons
Over the past three months, Falcons have played 49 maps and won 35 — one of the best win rates in the world. The team demonstrates consistency and high individual form. In the past month, Falcons placed 3rd at IEM Chengdu 2025 and secured silver at BLAST Rivals Season 2 — yet another confirmation of their stability at the top level.
- Falcons roster: NiKo, TeSeS, kyxsan, m0NESY, kyousuke
In their last five matches, Falcons claimed three victories — over Imperial, Passion UA, and Vitality — and suffered two losses to B8 and FURIA. Overall, their form looks significantly stronger than that of MOUZ.
MOUZ map pool
MOUZ almost always start the series by banning Dust2. This is a logical choice, as Falcons have a high win rate on the map and could use it as a strong advantage in this matchup. For their own pick, MOUZ usually target their opponent's weaker points. The most likely option is Inferno, where they have a 73% win rate. This is a map where MOUZ consistently demonstrate solid early- and mid-round structures. Train is also a strong option with a 100% win rate, but it is rarely left open, and Falcons are unlikely to allow MOUZ to play their strongest map.
In the second ban phase, MOUZ will logically remove Nuke. Falcons have an 80% win rate there, and leaving it in the pool could create serious problems. After the main picks and bans, MOUZ are expected to leave Mirage as a potential decider. They play it consistently — though not very successfully against Falcons — but it still looks more favorable than Ancient or Nuke.
Falcons map pool
Falcons traditionally begin with their most stable ban — Overpass. The team almost does not play this map and also knows that MOUZ have a strong win rate there, making the ban entirely expected. For their pick, Falcons most often choose Ancient. It is their best map with a 91% win rate. Moreover, they have already beaten MOUZ on Ancient several times in a row, making this pick nearly guaranteed. An alternative could be Nuke, but in this matchup Ancient looks even more reliable.
In the second ban phase, Falcons will remove Train. MOUZ have a 100% win rate there and a streak of victories, so Falcons will not risk leaving it open. After all stages of the veto, Mirage remains the most likely decider. Falcons feel comfortable on this map, have a stable win rate, and have already beaten MOUZ on it — giving them extra confidence should the series reach a third map.
Head-to-head history
In the past six months, MOUZ and Falcons have faced each other four times. Falcons won all four matches, giving them a clear psychological advantage heading into the next encounter.
The first match took place at Esports World Cup 2025, where Falcons won 2–1. The teams played Nuke (MOUZ lost 10–13), followed by a confident MOUZ win on Inferno (13–8), but the decider on Ancient ended in a 13–9 victory for Falcons.
The second meeting occurred at ESL Pro League Season 22 and also ended 2–1 for Falcons. MOUZ lost Nuke 7–13, dominated Inferno 13–3, but once again fell on Ancient 9–13 — already signaling recurring issues on the map.
The third encounter, also at EPL S22, ended with a commanding 2–0 win for Falcons. MOUZ failed to secure their play on Inferno and lost 13–16, before suffering another defeat on Ancient (7–13).
The fourth match took place at IEM Chengdu 2025 and again finished 2–1 in favor of Falcons. MOUZ started with a 6–13 loss on Mirage, responded with a 13–11 win on Inferno, but were crushed on Ancient 5–13.
All these meetings highlight a stable advantage for Falcons on key maps, especially Ancient, where MOUZ lost every single matchup. A streak of four consecutive victories forms a clear psychological edge for Falcons ahead of the upcoming match.
Prediction for MOUZ vs Falcons at StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 Stage 3
Based on the teams' form, map pool statistics, and head-to-head history, Falcons enter the match as clear favorites. They possess greater stability, stronger individual performers, and have already defeated MOUZ four times in a row under similar map-pool conditions.
MOUZ can contest Inferno and may fight for Mirage if it becomes the decider, but Ancient is almost guaranteed to go Falcons’ way. If MOUZ fail to dominate their own pick, their chances drop significantly.
Prediction: Falcons to win 2–1
#30
BetBoom Team
#102
GenOneWatch match
