Prediction on match CS2 Liquid - Falcons

The match between Team Liquid and Team Falcons at BLAST Bounty Winter 2026 promises to be one of the most intriguing clashes of the stage. Both teams come into this series with very different narratives: Liquid are still searching for consistency after a run of mixed results, while Falcons are showing steady progress and are gradually establishing themselves as one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament.

This best-of-three series will largely be decided by the map pool, current form, and each team’s ability to adapt during the match. That is what makes this matchup especially compelling: Liquid have the potential to compete on their comfort maps, but Falcons enter the game from a position of strength and higher expectations.

How Bookmakers See It: Team Falcons Are the Favorites

Bookmakers approach this matchup with a clear stance: Falcons are considered the favorites. This assessment is primarily driven by their more consistent form over the past few months, as well as solid results against top-tier opposition. Falcons show a mature team structure, better control over the pace of the game, and fewer collapses in crucial moments.

The map pool also plays a significant role in these expectations. Falcons have several strong maps where they can confidently impose their style, while Team Liquid’s consistency often depends heavily on securing a favorable pick. This difference in map pool depth and overall confidence makes Falcons the logical favorite in the eyes of bookmakers, even with the potential for a competitive series.

Current Form of Team Liquid: What to Expect from Liquid

Over the past three months, Liquid have played 33 maps, winning 18 of them. This represents a generally positive record, though without clear dominance. In the last month, the team has only competed at BLAST Bounty Winter 2026, where they managed to get through the opening rounds by defeating Ninjas in Pyjamas and Gentle Mates.

• Liquid lineup: NAF, ultimate, NertZ, siuhy, EliGE

Looking at their recent form, Liquid have won just two of their last five matches. Losses to Passion UA, The MongolZ, and Team Spirit exposed issues with consistency, especially against aggressive and well-structured opponents. Liquid are capable of putting up a fight, but they often struggle in key moments on deciding maps.

Current Form of Team Falcons: What to Expect from Falcons

Falcons come into this match in much stronger shape. Over the last three months, they have played 36 maps and won 24 of them, showing a confident tempo and solid overall team play. At the current tournament, Falcons have already defeated Monte and ECSTATIC, leaving their opponents with very few chances.

• Falcons lineup: NiKo, TeSeS, kyxsan, m0NESY, kyousuke

In their last five matches, Falcons have secured three victories, including a win over G2 Esports, which adds extra confidence ahead of the clash with Liquid. Losses to Team Spirit and MOUZ look more like isolated results rather than a worrying trend and do not significantly affect the overall picture.

Team Liquid Map Pool

Liquid’s draft in this matchup looks fairly straightforward. The team most frequently bans Overpass, and it is very likely to be their first ban here. This immediately removes Falcons’ ability to influence that map later in the veto.

When it comes to their own pick, Liquid usually rely on their strengths. The most logical choice is Ancient — a map they have picked multiple times and where they hold a 75% win rate. Mirage is also an option, but given Falcons’ strength on that map, Ancient appears to be the safer pick.

In the second ban phase, Liquid are likely to focus on removing one of Falcons’ strongest maps. Considering Falcons’ high win rate on Inferno, this map looks like the most probable second ban from Liquid.

If the series goes to a decider, Nuke appears to be the most realistic option for Liquid — a map where they boast an 80% win rate and traditionally feel very comfortable.

Team Falcons Map Pool

Falcons usually start drafts by banning Overpass, but in this matchup that map is expected to be removed first by Liquid. As a result, Falcons will need to adapt their standard approach.

In this situation, the most logical first ban for Falcons is Anubis — a map that is not among their strongest and can be uncomfortable from a preparation standpoint.

For their pick, Falcons are most likely to choose Mirage. This is one of their best maps, with a 78% win rate, where they can fully utilize their individual skill and fast-paced style, potentially creating serious problems for Liquid.

In the second ban phase, Falcons may target maps where Liquid show strong results. Banning Ancient makes the most sense, preventing Liquid from having another comfortable option besides their initial pick.

With this scenario, the most likely decider map would be Nuke or Dust2. However, considering both teams’ priorities and bans, Nuke looks like the most realistic deciding map in the series.

Head-to-Head Record

Over the past six months, Liquid and Falcons have not faced each other in any official matches. This means both teams will enter the game without recent head-to-head context, relying primarily on overall form and map pool analysis.

Match Prediction: Liquid vs Falcons – BLAST Bounty Winter 2026

Taking into account current form, consistency, and results against strong opponents, Falcons look like the favorites in this matchup. Liquid can challenge on their map pick and potentially make the series competitive, but over the full distance Falcons have more tools to control the game.

Prediction: Falcons to win 2–1, with Liquid potentially taking Ancient, while Mirage and the decider are more likely to go in Falcons’ favor.