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We continue to watch the action at IEM Katowice 2025 as the Play-In stage of the tournament heats up. There were 16 teams battling for 8 spots in the group stage, and now there are 8 spots.
Among the contenders for the group stage are Astralis and paiN Gaming. They will play each other in the second round of the lower grid at 18:30 CET.
We are trying to figure out who will be stronger in this match and will qualify for the Play-In group stage, and who will be one step away from the goal.
Let's go.
Astralis Form
We open the analysis of the match Astralis - paiN Gaming with the analysis of Astralis' form. In this match they play as favourites with odds to win at around 1.8.
The Danish club had a difficult period. They have tried their best to "return" to the TIR-1 scene, but they have always fallen short: Astralis finished top-20 at ESL Pro League Season 17 and top-14 at BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023: European RMR B.
At lesser tournaments, however, Astralis fared well. The world's most titled team finished Top 2 at Brazy Party, won CCT South Europe Series #4 and finished Top 4 at Pinnacle Cup V.
Returning to the S-Tier Championships, Astralis took Top 6 at IEM Masters Dallas 2023 and Top 8 at BLAST Premier: Fall Groups.
Prior to the BB Dacha, Astralis attended a number of other events. Those were ESL Pro League Season 18 and Roobet Cup 2023, where the once stellar Danes finished in the Top 16.
Just before the Long Convergence, BB Dacha Astralis finished in the Top 4 at CS Asia Championship 2023 and Top 8 at BLAST Premier: Fall Finals. The swing in performance is primarily due to roster manipulation.
- Astralis roster: Staehr, stavn, jabbi, CadiaN, Device.
Before IEM Katowice 2024 they played at BLAST Premier: Spring Groups 2024. At the end of the championship the Danes made it to the top 6 and it was enough to get to the BLAST Premier: Spring Final. The IEM Katowice 2024 Astralis failed in the dust and dust: took the top 32, not passing the Play-In stage.
Then there were two attempts to get to the PGL Major Copenhagen 2024, but both failed: TOP-11 at European RMR B and TOP-6 at European RMR Decider put an end to Astralis' participation in the home Major.
In the first match of IEM China 2024 Astralis played against steel helmet, as Monte could not make it to China. And if Monte had played there, the score would have been obviously not so crushing as 13-2 in favour of Astralis. Although, judging by the match with FaZe, where Astralis were a head and shoulders above FaZe, shutting down the top 1 team in the world with a score of 2-0, maybe Astralis are very energised for IEM China 2024. In the play-offs of the championship Astralis met FaZe Clan again, but this time they were weaker and lost with the score 1-2 and left the tournament.
Astralis visited ESL Pro League Season 19, where they reached the TOP-4, where in the match for the grand final Ledge and Vitality. Later, they had an identical result at CCT Season 1 Global Finals and YaLLa Compass 2024.
At BLAST Premier: Spring Finals 2024, Astralis played in Group A, where they finished in the top 3. They made it to the play-offs Ledge or Vp and left the tournament at the Top 6 stage. Later Astralis played at IEM Cologne 2024, where they finished top-12.
At the ESL Pro League Season 20 Long Season they were defeated by Fnatic (1-2). Next was a match against CoL (0-2). They finished ESL Pro League Season 20 as ignominiously as they started - losing to CoL and leaving the tournament at the TOP-28 stage.
After such poor results Astralis continued their attempts to return to the TIR-1 stage. For this purpose, they played at BLAST Premier: Fall Final 2024, where they took TOP-8 and at Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024, where they were TOP-12. As you can see, the attempts were not successful.
Astralis did well in the group stage of BLAST Premier: World Final 2024, leaving behind MOUZ, FaZe and NaVi. After winning Group A, Astralis directly qualified for the semi-finals. However, that was the end of their journey through BLAST Premier: World Final 2024, and Spirit advanced to the grand finals.
Astralis Long Sogpeg at PW Shanghai Major 2024: European RMR B with a loss against 9 Pandas, followed by Ledgeili and Sashi Esports. They managed to come together only by the third match against B8. However, the music didn't last long for Astralis and they failed to make it to Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024.
At BLAST Bounty Season 1 Astralis Long started with a victory over Wildcard, but then - NaVi and lost. At the end of BLAST Bounty Season 1 Astralis took the top 9-16.
IEM Katowice 2025 Astralis Long started with a loss from MIBR (0-2), but after that they barely defeated FlyQuest with the score 2-1.
Astralis Mapple
Astralis have two 100 per cent maps. They are Nuke with 9 wins in 14 matches, and Anubis with 5 matches and 4 wins.
They also play Ancient (66% wins in 3 matches). Still playing Mirage (9 matches, 4 wins). Vertigo with 2 wins and 3 losses and Overpass (2 wins in 7 matches).
Not playing Inferno.
Form paiN Gaming
We open the paiN vs Astralis match with a breakdown of paiN's playing form. In this match they play as an outsider with odds to win around 1.9.
The paiN Gaming club has played a lot of tournaments in 2024, among which there have been results. However, no special results were achieved.
By far the most significant was PGL Major Copenhagen 2024, where paiN managed to show character and a good game. They were just enough for the top 9-11, but even that is a good result.
Where paiN shine is on the home stage. The club has essentially dominated the Latin American scene, consistently winning B-tier tournaments. Such was the case at RES Latin American Series #4, Global Esports Tour Rio de Janeiro 2024, where they earned $100,000 for the win.
- The lineup of paiN Gaming: biguzera, lux, kauez, nqz, snow.
Landmark results include a pass at IEM Cologne 2024. Passed through home qualifications.
IEM Cologne 2024 paiN Gaming started with a loss in the match against Liquid (0-2). Further, already in the lower grid, the team won against compatriots from Imperial (2-1). At the end of IEM Cologne 2024 the team took the top 8.
Later, paiN Gaming played at BLAST Premier: Fall Showdown 2024, where they finished at the already "classic" for themselves TOP-8.
Before playing at PW Shanghai Major 2024, paiN Gaming visited Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024, where they finished in TOP-16, and ESL Challenger Katowice 2024, where they finished in TOP-4. The team made it directly to PW Shanghai Major 2024 thanks to a 3-1 score at American RMR.
At PW Shanghai Major 2024: Opening Stage paiN started their journey with a win over Imperial. Then they lost to GamerLegion, but then beat C9 and FlyQuest. Elimination Stage opened with a loss to MOUZ, followed by Ledgeili and 3DMax. In the match for life at Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024, paiN defeated BIG.
At the main stage of PW Shanghai Major 2024, paiN won 1-3, thus finishing in the top 14.
paiN opened the 2025 season with an appearance at BLAST Bounty Season 1. They managed to overcome qualification by beating GamerLegion and FaZe. In the play-offs of the tournament they met NaVi, where they were close to victory, but Ledgeili with the score 1-2, thus taking the top 6.
At IEM Katowice 2025 Long Sogpeg with a confident victory over Vp (2-0), but then lost to GamerLegion with a score of 0-2.
Map paiN Gaming
The top 1 map paiN gaming has had in the last 3 months is Mirage. L4O has a mind-blowing winrate of 92% with 13 games played.
They also played on Inferno, where they won 5 matches out of 7 games. In plus winrate and Nuke, where with 5 matches and 3 wins.
The most not favoured card for paiN gaming will be Vertigo. There they have 6 cards and only 1 win.
History of head-to-head meetings Astralis - paiN Gaming
How the clubs played each other back in 2021.
Predicted result of the match paiN Gaming - Astralis at IEM Katowice 2025
In this match my bet is on paiN. Despite the nominal advantage of Astralis, I don't believe that the Danes will outplay the loaded paiN, who are very good. However, I think it will be a full-fledged bo3.
Bottom line: paiN win.
