Sports betting. Cappers and bookmakers. The theory and experience.
Yuriy SheremetIdeally, «a bet» is a wager between people (who are called «players» or «cappers») on a result of one event where odds of a victory depend on the possibility of the result to succeed. A bookmaker is a person or a group of people who focus all players’ interests and, depending on the percentage of sums to results, offer everyone a wager with particular odds. And odds are a multiplier, which is used to calculate the sum of winnings by multiplying a sum of a bet.
The working principle of bookmaker companies
A bookmaker earns for a living by taking a percentage of the turnover of all money to his pocket. This percentage can be different: it depends not only on the betting organizer’s greed but on advertising expenses or a type of odds too. For example, an equal bet without a mediator in the form of a bookmaker has odds of 2. It is easy to count: you need to divide 100 (percent) by the chance to succeed – 50. If a bookmaker takes, let’s say, 5%, we subtract 5 percent to a mediator from 100, and then it is calculated in the same way: 95/50=1.9 – the odds on an equal bet where a bookmaker is involved. As a live example, let’s take a look at odds on an event, which I have taken from one famous bookmaker:
- The result А = 1.26;
- The result B = 3.152.
Having bet 100 Euros on the result A, the possible winnings amount to 126 where 26 Euros is extra money. Having bet the same sum on the result B – 315,20 Euros (215,20 of the income). Just out of interest, let’s calculate the bookmaker’s percent. To find out this, we will need to calculate the sum of two quantities:
- (100/the team A’s odds) + (100/the team B’s odds).
Having used the current numbers in the formula, we have the following:
- (100/1.26) + (100/3.152) = 111%
So a bookmaker takes 11%, deforming the percent. Why is it so big? Because a bookmaker is popular for a reason and an advertisement does its job. Also, a part is taken by the fact that odds are «fixed»: having put money on a particular multiplier, the possible winnings (and the end of making deals, respectively) do not depend on changes in the odds. It is fixed. But what should be done when the third person joins the wager of two people? Right, we need to cut the possible prize of two persons and give a free percent to the third one. This operation is counted in advance and is a part of the odds offered to a player, which includes that 11% (a small sum of the reserve is explained by a cappers’ wide audience). This system does not relate to bets with the «unfixed» odds because there is no need in the money reserve for the next player. A bookmaker with the «unfixed» odds takes a smaller percent but it does not guarantee that the multiplier the money has been bet on will not change at the beginning of the match.
Many services provide an opportunity to make live bets. Live is a bet, which is made during an event on the fixed odds with all the above-mentioned pros and cons. A bet can be made from the beginning of the event and till a particular limit on some indicators (a number of rounds or time). Of course, you can’t withdraw from a deal. A decision to bet money on this type is often based on the wrong opinion about one or another team at the beginning of the match and, as a result, it often leads to losses due to greed to earn more and faster. However, some cold-blooded players can analyze the live situation and bet money, using high odds, but this is the question of strong nerves, knowledge, and luck because no analytics or experience will not help a team if it is just unlucky.
Restrictions of the opportunity to make bets at the end of a match exist to prevent «the after-goal». The after-goal is a live bet on the event, which has already happened but a bookmaker has not reacted to it. It is possible when a company is watching a broadcast through a service with a time lag and a player makes a bet on the Internet, sitting at the event.
Accumulators
An accumulator is a bet on a few events with fixed odds. In such a way, an accumulator allows betting one sum on 5 events, for example. In the case of the successful prediction, odds of five events are multiplied and winnings amount to the multiplication of all odds by the sum of a bet. An accumulator is failed in the case of when at least one event does not win. An accumulator can be put only before the start of all events of the deal
Totals
A total is a bet on the number of something in a match. A bet is taken on goals, points, rounds, time, etc. In the majority of cases, bookmakers receive bets on something in a match, which is over or under a particular number. A total is put till the beginning of a match (but a small accuracy is possible).
Risk-free bets
The scammers’ most favorite topic is risk-free bets. Why? Because, in theory, it is a victorious strategy when it does not matter how a person bets, he/she will make a profit in the form of a percent. The idea is simple: there is an event, for example, with two possible results and an arber’s goal is to find the maximum difference in odds at various bookmaker companies and use it. Let’s take a look at the example:
- BC_1: 1.32 х 2.81;
- BC_2: 1.50 х 2.25;
- BC_3: 1.63 х 2.00;
- BC_4: 1.38 x 2.57.
Let the first odds represent «the result A» and the second ones represent «the result B». Now, we will find the bookmaker, which offers the biggest odds on the result A and then find the maximum offer on the result B. We choose BC_3 (1.63) for A and BC_1 (2.81) for B. Let’s add these odd and we receive 4.44. Then we take our bank (a sum of money, which is meant to use for bets) and divide it by 4.44, the number we received will be multiplied by one of the odds. For example, 1000 Euros (yes, a big bank is required for risk-free bets) is divided by 4.44 and multiplied by 1.63 (the first odds). Roughly, we will have 367. This is a sum for a bet on the result B in the bookmaker BC_1. Now, we will subtract 367 from 1000. The received equality (633 Euros) will be bet on the result A in BC_3.
As a result, we have the following situation: the initial bank will grow on a bit more than 30 Euros in the case of any result of the match. And it seems that this scheme is working and the theory asks for the realization but the top risk-free bettors who sell this theoretical information on the Internet will not tell you that it is very difficult to find this difference in odds in principle. They will not tell you that not every bookmaker is ready to receive a bet higher than 500$ and that a bookmaker takes an extra percent when you withdraw your money (and you will have to withdraw on a permanent basis). They will not tell you that an administration will suspect you due to regular withdrawals and probably ban you for the rule violation because risk-free bets are forbidden. The risk of losing the whole bank for two or three percent does not seem to be that worth taking, does it?
Match-fixing
Whoever says whatever about match-fixing when losing money, I want to say that this phenomenon happens very rarely. Foolish newcomers mainly sin this way because they want to become rich quickly but the experienced and recognized sportsmen will not risk their career for small money. If we talk about team games, the possibility of match-fixing is even lower here because you will have to cope with the whole team, including a coach. There are cases when a player or two players take everyone down but it is not the fact that there was a deal: players might be too nervous, tired since the previous game, the game just does not go the right way. You can find the «322» messages by cappers on the Internet in such cases. «322» is a local meme, which means match-fixing. The meme appeared after one of the players from a Dota 2 team put 100$ against his teammates with odds of 3.22. The sum of the winnings amounted 322$. The result – disqualified and banned.
Tricks by bookmakers
There are also scammers among bookmakers. Working with the last ones, a player will likely face odds cutting. A bookmaker company will reduce odds at the moment of depositing of winnings to your account, using various reasons. For example, having made a bet on an unlikely result with odds of 10+, odds might change to 4-5 till the moment of depositing. A miscalculation or greed – only a bookmaker knows but it is not recommended working with such a bookmaker anymore. Also, some «extremely arrogant» bookmaker companies can even change a bet history (had a similar experience). Having bet on Team A, I saw on a bookmaker website after the match that the bet was written on Team B. A technical support made nothing. It is worth noticing register bonuses and promotions from bookmakers: one bookmaker company promised a bonus in the form of 100$ on an account but under particular conditions. If conditions are appropriate, there are no questions but that conditions were similar to «overrun the high-speed train Moscow – Kazan with two pandas on the board using a scooter on the sand, which must be painted in the colors of the Brazilian flag».
How to choose a reliable bookmaker?
Asking the question «How to choose a bookmaker?», I strongly recommend any bookmaker with unfixed odds. It is frequently not the most famous companies but they have loyal administration and low percent for their services. They usually can take any sum without limits, save an opportunity to cancel bets, and often make «normal» promotions. The disadvantages you can face while working with little-known bookmaker companies are a limited system of withdrawing money (a withdrawal is available not for all wallets), delays in withdrawals (it is rare but it happens), and odds, which can change many times till the beginning of a match. Considering these points, the decision «to be or not to be» should be made in 5-10 minutes before a match. Then odds will not grow a lot and it will allow you to follow the competition being calm.
Is it worth trusting predictions?
Optionally, you can use other people’s predictions: paid or free. Everything is understandable with the free ones but it is not that simple with the paid ones. It is impossible to check the competence of a person who sells prediction, consequently, there are more «pro-analysts» on the Internet than atoms in a glass of water. Considering that modern cappers-scammers make more money by bringing people to a particular bookmaker company and earning a percent, they will not provide the right predictions always because it is not profitable and they have to know the topic, of which such guys can’t boast. The best decision will be to take responsibility on your own and make your own mistakes without giving money to unknown people. No one forbids using websites with statistics and match history. The chances to make a successful bet grow when you made an adequate analysis and the understanding of every sportsman’s play, his temper, and abilities comes with time. The only condition to raise the accuracy of a prediction is to live it. A player should be interested in this sport, at least. But you should not turn a way of spending time more interesting into a way of making money.
If someone offers a person a deal to boost his account, I can confidently say that this will be a gambling addict or a thief. A thief understands that winning a bet is mainly an accident and it will be more profitable just to take your money. A gambling addict, instead, is sure that there is some kind of a rule, following which, he will win an incredible state. Every person who sits without work, having seen an opportunity to earn on bets, will become a gambling addict later or sooner. But it is not worth regretting or trying to help: saving the drowners is the work of the drowners themselves. This is their choice. So such offers to boost do not worth attention.
Is it possible to make money on betting?
I will answer the question «Is it possible to make money on betting?» briefly: «No, it is not». However, it is not true, actually: it is possible on a short distance (enter and make a few bets to satisfy your interest and win). But there is one problem – greed. It will prevail one day and a player will turn his/her brain after, let’s say, ten correct predictions. Having believed in himself/herself, a player will bet a big sum and lose as it always happens. And then he/she will try to repeat the success. It does not matter if a player makes it or not: he/she is on the hook of own greed. The only decision will be the realization of the situation and the understanding of reality. So «a long-term perspective» is not about bets.
But knowledge in this sphere can really help a person. A good analyst can try his power as a TV caster or on streams at professional studios. Bookmakers will also be happy to have quality predictions and they might hire a knowledgeable person as an analyst. After all, you can try yourself as a bookmaker if the country’s laws allow this.
Bets are a way to add interest to a match, adrenaline but it is not a way of earning money. I want to sum the article with the expression: «Greed was someone’s undoing». Learn about your mistakes but it will be even better if you learn on the other people’s mistakes.
Yuriy Sheremet – Expert in mobile gaming and esports among shooters and MOBA games.
At EGamersWorld, Yuriy, as in 2020 when he joined the portal, works with content, albeit with adjustments to his area of responsibility.