How to Bet on Favourites in Football?

Every ordinary fan that is good at football can easily predict the winner at almost any coming match before it even starts. However, the biggest part of winners at such matches is estimated with tiny odds by bookmakers. For example, it is easy to forsee Liverpool’s beating Brighten at home. But the odds for Liverpool are only 1.15 which is definitely mismatching with a lucrative bet. It is a much better idea to look for underestimated events or to look for matches where bookmakers generously estimate the favourite’s success.

Nevertheless, betting on favourites in football is a tricky task. You will have to consider all possible factors and aspects that affect the future results of the game.

Today’s article reveals tips on how to make bets on favourites of football matches correctly.

Underestimated favourite

First of all, we should not bet on a decreased favourite. For example, if the initial odds were 1.35 but before the match the quotations dropped to 1.15 – 1.2, this event should be skipped, or you should catch the profitable odds during the battle.

It is important to remember that in the long-term such tiny and decreased quotations will lead to negative amounts. That is why you will have to look for underestimated quotations. Keep the following points in mind:

• Strong opponents’ readiness for the upcoming meeting. It is a bad sign if key footballers are injured or disqualified for the nearest game.
• Motivation. If the team’s goal is to obtain three points at the upcoming battle, their victory is about timing.
• Selected tactics and teams’ level. Tactics plays a major role at the upcoming meeting. For example, if a strong opponent plays in defense with a minimal amount of worthy moments, you should not expect destruction. Also consider teams’ level as the weaker opponent in level, motivation, or readiness may not be beaten by the favourite.
• Solution of particular tasks. Favourites often lose battles if they don’t have stated objectives. For example, these event might be final rounds at the group stage of European cups where the stronger opponent may release a reserve roster giving a chance to young footballers to play. This happens the team has already achieved their goal. However, a bookmaker would estimate this team considering their popularity but not their roster.
• Significance of the match. This point is related to matches in local clubs where lots of nominal favourites tend to lose. It is important to understand that strong opponents are not often interested in cup battles putting their efforts in national championships.

Considering the mentioned points, every bettor can easily filter out unnecessary battle for future bets.

Let us also say that an underestimated favourite often has odds of 2 for victory. However, the initial quotations will be approximately 1.6. Having found this match, the battor can secure themselves and bet on zero handicap. The odds will be lower but a chance to lose money will be lower as well. 

Overestimated outsider 

Bettors often bet on positive handicap of the outsider at the meetings between favourites and outsiders in particular. It happens as they hope that the weaker team will oppose the stronger one and gain the desired results. There are tens of reasons for such bets. However, in this case it is important to ignore the reasons of decrease of the outsider’s odds but to take a closer look at chances of the stronger team to win at the upcoming match. If, according to the run analysis, the selected team is to win the meeting, you should have no doubts about a possible winner and bet. In this case bettors should start from the set quotation believing other bettors.

Home arena factor

If the meeting is held between two equal teams especially in European cups, bookmakers base their values on club’s popularity but ignore secondary factors. One of the main factors is whether the battle takes place at home where the team shows the best results. And in European cups the majority of matches finished with a win for the team that plays at home. It concerns the playoff in particular as the teams bet on the home match.

However, even if teams always win at home, bookmakers underestimated the owners of the pitch setting the quotations high. These quotations are profitable in the long-term.

If you don’t want to bet on pure victory of the home team, you can just secure yourself and opt for zero handicap with less generous odds.

Factor of the third win at the home arena

In football there is a pattern: a strong team that loses two consecutive matches will gain a win for the third time especially in front of their fans. It is noteworthy that this pattern is fruitful. However, you should consider that the last two losses should happen at guest battles but not at home. The opponents must be equal. And only in this case it is a good idea to bet on a potential win of the stronger team at home after two losses in a row. 

Otherwise, if the home team had two consecutive losses against the outsider, you should not account for the team’s win even at home.

Match at a national championship before the playoff of European cups

Strong teams often play for two objective: they fight for top places in the championship and for winning Champions League or Europa League. In this case the main coach of each team focuses on a particular direction.

Let us analyse three possible situations:

• In the first case the main coach counts on victory or getting to Champions League at the next season. However, they will have to do their best at the championship releasing the main roster. In this case their chances for success in Europe will be minimal.
• In the second case the club that has solved their issues at the championship will prioritize Champions League. No doubt there will be rotation at the matches of the championship in order to prevent injuries and loss of physical power. In this case you should bet on outsiders at the championship. And in the Champions League (or Europa League) you should place a bet on the strong team.
• The third option concerns grands that have a vast bench. These teams play for two goals thanks to some high-class footballers that represent the bench. No doubt these teams have all their problems solved at the championship so the main focus lies on the European cup.

Takeaway

The enlisted cases should help any player to look for correct options for future bets. Let us also mark that to have the best results, it is enough to run accurate analysis of all football events. Only in this case the bettor can find suitable battles with the highest quotations from bookmakers.