The match between Monte and Falcons at BLAST Bounty Winter 2026 promises to be one of the most intriguing clashes of the stage. Both teams come into the game after wins in their previous matches, but their paths and overall level of consistency differ significantly. Monte have already managed to surprise many by defeating NAVI, while Falcons appear to be a more structured and balanced lineup. These factors make the upcoming matchup particularly interesting from a prediction standpoint.
How the Bookmakers See It: Falcons Are the Favorites
Bookmakers give the edge to Falcons in this matchup, viewing them as the more stable and predictable team over a best-of-three series. Despite Monte’s high-profile victory over NAVI, analysts believe that repeating such a result will be extremely difficult: the opponent has a deeper map pool, stronger win-rate statistics on key maps, and is less dependent on specific game scenarios.
Falcons look stronger in terms of structure and veto execution, which significantly reduces Monte’s chances of pulling off another upset. As a result, the odds favor Falcons, while a Monte victory is considered a less likely outcome.
Current Form of Monte: What to Expect from Monte
Monte approach this match in high spirits and with solid results behind them. Over the last three months, the team has played 48 maps and won 26 of them, reflecting a stable—though not flawless—level of performance. It is also important to note that over the past month Monte have focused exclusively on BLAST Bounty Winter 2026, where they already made a strong statement by defeating NAVI.
- Monte roster: Gizmy, afro, AZUWU, Bymas, Rainwaker
A five-match winning streak against NAVI, FUT, OG, GenOne, and 500 highlights Monte’s confidence and strong preparation for the tournament. The team looks well-coordinated, disciplined, and ready to impose their own pace even against tough opponents.
Current Form of Falcons: What to Expect from Falcons
Falcons have played fewer maps over the last three months—34 in total—but their win percentage is impressive, with 22 maps won. In the current tournament, they started confidently with a victory over ECSTATIC, allowing them to clear the opening hurdle without major issues.
- Falcons roster: NiKo, TeSeS, kyxsan, m0NESY, kyousuke
However, their last five matches paint a slightly less consistent picture: three wins (ECSTATIC, G2, Imperial) and two losses against MOUZ and Team Spirit. This suggests that Falcons may face difficulties against teams with aggressive or well-structured playstyles, especially in longer series.
Monte Map Pool
Monte are likely to approach the veto by focusing on their strengths and their opponent’s weaknesses. Their most probable first ban is Inferno, a map they remove most frequently regardless of the opponent.
As their map pick, Dust2 looks like the most logical option. Although Monte sometimes choose Nuke, the low win rate there (33%) makes it a risky choice. Dust2, on the other hand, boasts a solid 67% win rate and remains one of their strongest maps. Mirage, with a 62% win rate, can also be considered as an alternative.
In the second ban phase, Monte are likely to remove Ancient to deny Falcons one of their prepared comfort maps. In this scenario, Monte would not mind leaving Train as the decider—a map where they currently hold a perfect 100% win rate.
Falcons Map Pool
Falcons are almost guaranteed to begin the veto with a ban of Overpass, which is their least comfortable map. This move is standard and highly predictable.
For their pick, Falcons are most likely to choose Mirage—a map with a strong 75% win rate and excellent adaptability against various opponents. Ancient and Nuke also remain viable options, but Mirage appears to be the most stable and reliable choice specifically against Monte.
In the second round of bans, Falcons may target Nuke, considering Monte’s weak statistics on that map. If Nuke is removed, Falcons would be forced to play the decider, where a potential Train looks considerably less favorable for them compared to their opponent.
This veto scenario makes it crucial for Falcons to deliver a confident performance on their own map pick, as the deciding map could heavily tilt the series in favor of Monte.
Head-to-Head Matches
Over the past six months, Monte and Falcons have not faced each other. The lack of recent head-to-head meetings makes the matchup harder to predict, but it also removes any psychological edge, putting both teams on equal footing before the game.
Match Prediction for BLAST Bounty Winter 2026: Monte vs Falcons
Despite Monte’s impressive winning streak, Falcons appear to be the more pragmatic and stable option in this matchup. The team has better win-rate statistics on key maps—especially Mirage—and is capable of controlling the flow of the series through strong veto decisions and in-game adaptations.
If Falcons successfully convert their map pick and avoid early mistakes, they should have a strong chance to control the match even if it goes to a decider.
Prediction: Falcons to win 2–1.
