Match Prediction: MOUZ - OG | CS2 (CS:GO)

MOUZ and OG will compete in one of the third confrontations of the debut gaming day of Intel Extreme Masters Road to Rio 2022 Europe RMR B and try to earn their first victory, which will bring them closer to entering the Major tournament. MOUZ is called the favorite of the confrontation, however, their advantage over OG is not as obvious as they and their fans would like. Experts from bookmakers believe that the probability of their triumph in this case is only 53%, and the odds for MOUZ to win is 1.75. Is it worth it to bet on the favorite here, or may additional opportunities open up before us? We will look for the answer to this question in the course of the analysis of the meeting participants.

MOUZ uniform

In the current version of the rating, MOUZ occupies the 9th place and is still in the top 10 best CS:GO rosters in the world according to HLTV. The team performed well at ESL Pro League Season 16 and took 5-8th place in the standings, failing to reach the semi-finals of the event. The team performed brilliantly in the group stage and took first place in Group C, beating Heroic, ENCE, Complexity Gaming and HEET on its way. They failed to overcome Astralis in the group stage, and in the quarter-finals the team lost in the fight against Team Liquid, who almost gained the upper hand in the last championship.

In addition to the ESL Pro League, the team also took part in the qualifying round for the BLAST Premier Fall Showdown 2022, where they took 3rd-4th place and were left without the coveted invite to this event. Before the defeat against Eternal Fire, the team managed to beat ONYX and SINNERS.

As we can see, MOUZ are in more or less good shape. And what can be said about their approach to the choice of cards? Undoubtedly, Mirage is in the status of the best map performed by MOUZ, where in 10 meetings against strong opponents dexter and his teammates did not suffer a single defeat. Not only Mirage has a win rate of 100%, but also Overpass along with Dust 2. Unlike Mirage, Overpass has been played 4 times. and on Dust 2 the roster played only once. On Inferno and Vertigo, the team performs successfully in 50% of cases. On Nuke and Ancient, they should not appear. There, the percentage of wins is 44.4% and 28.6%.

History of recent MOUZ meetings

TWR Eastern European Masters Fall 2022 - BLAST Premier Qualifier

• MOUZ 1-2 Eternal Fire
• MOUZ 16-14 SINNERS
• MOUZ 16-1 ONYX

ESL Pro League Season 16

• MOUZ 0-2 Team Liquid
• MOUZ 2-1 HEET
• MOUZ 2-1 Complexity Gaming
• MOUZ 2-0 ENCE
• MOUZ 0-2 Astralis
• MOUZ 2-0 Heroic

MOUZ card statistics

• Mirage (10 cards) - 100%
• Overpass (4 cards) - 100%
• Dust 2 (1 card) - 100%
• Inferno (10 cards) - 50%
• Vertigo (4 cards) - 50%
• Nuke (9 cards) - 44.4%
• Ancient (7 cards) - 28.6%

OG game uniform

OG, like MOUZ, is an international team that uses a language other than its own when communicating. The team is now in 14th place in the list of the best CS:GO rosters in the world according to HLTV. In September, the team missed ESL Pro League Season 16, but instead took part in other events, ESL Challenger Melbourne 2022 and CCT Central Europe Series 2. In the first case, they took 5-6th place, and in the second, the team reached the top 2, but also did not succeed in winning the victory. It is noteworthy that the last two confrontations within the CCT Central Europe Series 2 took place already in October. In the last confrontation, the team was defeated in the fight against forZe, the team that occupies the 26th place in the world ranking. If the roster lost to such an opponent, what should we say about MOUZ, who are still in the top 10?

The main map where OG like to play is Ancient. There, players perform successfully in 85.7% of cases. On Dust 2 and Vertigo, the win rate is 66.7%. Overpass, Inferno and Mirage have win rates of 60%, 50% and 24.9%, so they should avoid matches on these maps. Nuke OG is still not played at all.

History of recent OG meetings

CCT Central Europe Series 2

• OG 1-2 forZe
• OG 2-1 Endpoint
• OG 2-0 SINNERS
• OG 2-1 Enterprise

ESL Challenger Melbourne 2022

• OG 0-2 Wings Up
• OG 13-16 Entropiq
• OG 16-13 Wings Up

OG map stats

• Ancient (7 cards) - 85.7%
• Dust 2 (6 cards) - 66.7%
• Vertigo (3 cards) - 66.7%
• Overpass (5 cards) - 60%
• Inferno (4 cards) - 50%
• Mirage (7 cards) - 42.9%

Conclusion

OG for me looks like a clear underdog in this fight and in my opinion the probability of MOUZ winning is much higher than the declared 53% with odds of 1.75. Here you can simply bet on their victory and in case of victory there will already be a good profit. Those who want more risk and try to get a more solid profit, I can offer such an option as Handicap -2.5 rounds in favor of MOUZ with a coefficient of 2.00. I think this option is quite acceptable. More save markets are Handicap +2.5 rounds in favor of MOUZ and Handicap +3.5, and the odds for these markets are 1.55 and 1.40, which is also quite good in principle. Ultimately, I love the middle ground rule and will opt for a simple MOUZ win without too much risk.

Final bet: MOUZ to win at odds of 1.75