Common Mistakes in Football Bets
Yuriy SheremetFootball is a popular kind of sport not only among fans but also among bettors. Annually there are hundreds millions of football deals. Notably, bettors always continue making easy mistakes in betting.
Today’s article covers some popular mistakes in bets on football matches.
Inflated Expectations About Results
Almost every beginner is sure that if there is a meeting between two teams with high performance that can play in attack, you are likely to see a fruitful battle with breaking a standard total over 2.5 scores. However, as the results show, in such matches teams act very carefully trying to keep their own net untouched.
The indicator of good results is connected with teams that can play in attack but stably concedes goals, even with outsiders. Only when you see such teams, with additional analysis, you can make a bet on TO. In other cases only Total Under is the first option for your further consideration.
It is obvious that in the nearest battle the coaching staff will lean on defense trying to nullify the opponent’s goal moments.
It is enough to take a look at similar battles. For example, Manchester United against Manchester City, or Barcelona against Real where bookmakers set the odds of 1.35 for “both score” while the basic total is equal to 3.5 at the next game. In such situations it is much more profitable to make a bet on Total Under but not hope for a fruitful match.
Bets on Another Victory of the Team
It is pretty common to see that a particular team always succeeds and wins every other battle. However, no one considers secondary factors that influence the following results:
- Absence of matches in European cups;
- Absence of battles in local clubs;
- Presence of key footballers in the roster;
- Sufficient time for rest (at least 5 days).
If one of the mentioned factors influences the battle, you should not count on victory of the chosen team. The team is likely to lose or to draw due to absence of physical conditions for the nearest game.
We should also say that apart from physical power, footballers’ performance also depends on emotions and psychological aspects. For example, an average team beat two opponents in a row at home. The following match is a guest one, and it is held against an equal team. And the bookmaker, taking into account two wins, will make the guest team their minimal favourite. However, in this match there is a high probability of losing points as the home team gets points with more confidence than guests even if you take into account the latest results.
Rehabilitation of a Strong Team After Failure
There is another common stereotype in which bettors tend to make a bet on a team taking into account their recent loss or points that they were unable to receive. This factor especially concerns their loss at home at a battle against a weak opponent. At first the strong opponent seem to make amends for their fans with their victory at the following battle. And bookmakers also set the same value making the quotations less after the previous failure. However, the club is more likely to lose points in the next battle.
You should also take into account that a stronger club is able to win but the victory will be minimal for the team. In this case the bettor should play for the outsider paying attention to the state of the favourite and the tiny odds set by bookmakers.
Favourite’s Loss Before the Match in European Cups
This aspect is specifically related to playoff matches when every team is aimed at winning the cup. Additionally, the club also has unsolved issues in the national championship where losing points will be an unreasonable solution.
In such situations there is a victory at national championships at stake for authorities of clubs, and battles at European cups go background. But bettors do not take into account the fact that the team is tired while making a bet on winning the playoff cup. But as it often happens, after a difficult battle when the team enters the pitch tired, the players do not show their best.
This aspect is not applicable to hegemons at national championship. For example, PSG or Bavaria easily can release their second roster for a game at a national championship as they are not afraid to lose points but they will have a chance to prepare their lineup for a match at the playoff of European cups.
Positive Results of Average Performers After Winning a Cup
This aspect is spread among battles at local battles only as there teams try hard to achieve the desired result. Especially if it comes to weak teams that try to proceed to the next stage and each extra grabs for participation in the tournament. As for the next battle, at the championship after 2-3 days of rest the team will not be ready to fight and will try to dry out the game to gain some points. Due to lack of powers, the team will lose points as they don’t have enough time for rest and there will not be proper rotation at the bench.
Favourite’s Win at a Local Cup
Every year favourites of all cups in different countries leave the events. The reasons are always different and it is hard to predict the probable knockout before the start of the meeting.
However, it is essential to understand that average teams that do not depend on funds are unlikely to focus on such a cup. Before the start of the match it is important to analyze chances and motivation of all teams. To exemplify, a favourite may be fighting for gold medals at a national championship and will be happy to make a sacrifice of an unnecessary cup.
It concerns average teams in particular. Such teams understand that winning this cup will be hard due to two reasons:
- Strong competition with leaders.
- Minimal grabs that are not compared to prize money at a national championship.
These are the reasons why average teams make a decision to mess up cups from the first stage to concentrate on participation or fighting in a championship.
To find a similar battle, it is enough to look through the tournament bracket of teams, their performances and lineups. In any case, the bettor will find defects and make an appropriate bet for the game.
Bet on Team’s Motivation
It is important to understand that it is not enough to play only with motivation in football. First of all, teams play with gaming qualities and mastership. Motivation is a secondary aspect that is only used as an addition in betting.
For example, if you take a match with local favourite and outsider guests, you will see that the guest team needs points not to leave the championship at the next season. However, the home favourite, even with absence of motivation, will not let the opponent take the points as they are playing in front of their fans.
Conclusion
The enlisted examples will help every bet to find and to skip such situations while looking for profitable football battles. Let us also mention that a competent analysis will be in handy in the long-term.
Yuriy Sheremet – Expert in mobile gaming and esports among shooters and MOBA games.
At EGamersWorld, Yuriy, as in 2020 when he joined the portal, works with content, albeit with adjustments to his area of responsibility.