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The first international tournament of the LoL professional season in 2025 is coming to its climax. The Fist Stand 2025 Long Season will feature a play-offs stage where 4 teams will compete for the title of champion and a $400,000 cash prize.
Karmine Corp and CTBC are among the contenders for such significant prizes. The teams will open the play-offs with a face-to-face Bo5 match.
Let's try to figure out which team will be the stronger and make it to the grand finals of First Stand 2025.
Let's go.
CTBC Form
We open the CTBC Flying Oyster match with an analysis of CTBC's form. In this match, the LCP Split 1 champions will play as favourites with odds to win at around 1.7.
CTBC Flying Oyster is one of the leading teams in Taiwan, but not the first. They are constantly Ledgeaing PSG Talon and there is a reason for that. It's because of CTBC Flying Oyster's youth, playing on the professional scene for only 2 seasons.
In two years they managed to achieve normal results. No more and no less. In 2022, CTBC Flying Oyster made a splash at PCS, first taking the top 1 at the spring split (PCS Spring 2022) and then winning the summer split (PCS Summer 2022), thus qualifying for Worlds 2022.
The team played their first Worlds Championship the way they were expected to - finishing in last place of the group stage, playing it 1-5.
- CTBC Flying Oyster line-up: Rest, JunJia, HongQ, Doggo, Kaiwang.
In 2023, the results were more modest, but it was enough to qualify for Worlds 2023. In the first split CTBC Flying Oyster took the top 3 before losing to PSG Talon in the PCS Summer 2023 finals.
In the first match at Worlds 2023, CTBC played against DetonatioN FocusMe. The match was a bit tense as the Japanese clung to their chances, but overall CTBC was in control and the Taiwanese took the series 2-0.
In the match for the next stage CTBC met Team Whales on their way. The Vietnamese Underpassdogs showed real class as they managed to comeback from 0-1 down to take the series 2-1, leaving the more titled CTBC behind. However, they failed to make it to the next stage: a 0-2 loss to BDS and a top-20 exit from the tournament.
In the 2024 season, CTBC won the PCS Spring 2024 regular season, followed by a top-3 finish at the PCS Spring Playoffs 2024. Next, it was Top-3 at the PCS Summer 2024, and Top-4 at the PCS Summer Playoffs 2024. In the 2024 season, CTBC missed out on all international championships.
In the 2025 season, after the Asian regions were united under one umbrella - LCP - CTBC showed the level. There, at LCP Split 1, CTBC won the tournament, beating TALON 3-1.
Making it to the first international tournament of the season, First Stand 2025, CTBC made it through the group stage with a 3-1 win over only HLE, but beating both Karmine Corp and Liquid, and more importantly, LPL champions TES.
CTBC's Flying Oyster were the most popular champions
Fiora, Sion, Kenen and Renekton appeared 3 times each, of which the first two won 2 matches each, but Kenen and Renekton took all their games. Jayce, KSante, Camile, Jax and Gnar appeared 2 times each (Jax won both matches, the others 1-1).
Things are much less varied in the metha dictated forest. The most pickable character is Maokai (7 games, 100% wins). Next are Vi (5 games, 80% wins) and Sejuani and Wukong (4 games each, 50% wins).
The centre line doesn't shine with variety either. The same popular Azir (6 games, 50% wins), Jayce (6 games, 83% wins), Akali (5 games, 80% wins).
In bot - Zeri (7 matches, 100% wins), Lucian (4 matches, 50% wins), Caitlyn (100% wins in 3 matches), Jhin (3 games, 66% wins).
The situation is as follows: Nami, Ashe, Yummi have 4 games each with 2 wins for the first, 3 for the second and perfect winrate for the third. Next are Heim (3 games, 66% wins) and Annie (3 matches, 100% wins).
Karmine Corp form
We continue the analysis of the match Karmine Corp - CTBC with the analysis of Karmine Corp form. In this match, the French are playing the second number with a minimal margin of victory: the odds are at around 2.
Despite its great popularity in Europe, Karmine Corp is an absolute newcomer to the LEC league. The French team has previously played on the local scene, competing against compatriots, and has also played in various TIR-2 events within the LEC ecosystem.
For 2023, the teami has a very strong record with appearances in 4 tournaments. For professional teams in League of Legends, this is significant, as most of them play exclusively in a single league.
Karmine Corp started with LFL Spring 2023 and started off horribly. At the local league the team played 7-11 in the group stage, which was not even enough to qualify for the play-offs.
Things improved significantly from there and Karmine Corp lifted the championship trophy over their heads twice in a row. The first time at LFL Summer 2023 and the second time at EMEA Masters Summer 2023. Incidentally, Masters Karmine Corp have won 4 times in the team's history and that is a significant statistic.
The last tournament of last season was the Coup De France 2024 championship. Either there was no priority for the event, or they were not in shape at all, but KC took the top 8 there.
- Karmine Corp line-up: Canna, Yike, Vladi, Caliste, Targamas.
Karmine Corp joined the LEC by purchasing a slot from Astralis. The Danish club, which did not achieve results last season, decided to sell its place in the prestigious league. Whether they did the right thing - we will find out later.
In the first match of LEC Winter 2024 Karmine Corp will play against Fnatic. In that match I believe in the victory of Karmine. After that - the game against G2 Esports and there Karmine Corp will be much more difficult. However, with Fnatic everything turned out to be the opposite: KC won, and with G2 Esports - everything is logical, an easy victory for the "samurai".
Karmine Corp officially became the worst team of LEC Winter 2024 ahead of time. Before Long Sogpeg of their last match in the regular season, KC have a stat line of 1-7, with their only win coming in week 3 against SK Gaming. The only treat was the prestige point that Karmine Corp got in their last group stage match.
At LEC Spring 2024, Karmine Corp repeated their "success" of the winter split. That is, they again took the last line, and with the identical result of 2 wins and 7 losses.
At the LEC Summer 2024 Playoffs, they made it to the LEC Summer 2024 Playoffs from 5th place with a score of 4-5. They debuted in the play-offs with a match against G2 Esports, where they lost 0-2. Karmine Corp rather unexpectedly ran over MAD Lions KOI in the first round of the lower bracket, shutting out the more titled opponent 2-0. Next, they won again and again over a more titled opponent in the form of SK Gaming. In the end, they managed to reach the top 4, but then the fuse was not enough and BDS knocked Karmine Corp out of the tournament.
The group stage of LEC Winter 2025 Karmine Corp did well. Canna and company shared the second line of the group stage table with G2 and KOI, coming away with a 6-3 win. In the first round of play-offs Karmine Corp confidently outplayed Team Vitality, and went on to beat KOI with a similar win. Against G2 it was a very different situation and resulted in a 1-3 defeat. KOI barely defeated Fnatic 3-2 in the bottom set, but in the grand final something happened: Karmine Corp literally destroyed G2, defeating the best team in Europe 3-0, leaving the "samurai" no chance.
At First Stand 2025, Karmine Corp did not play their best game. The LEC champions played 1-3, but thanks to coincidence and map difference, they qualified for the play-offs.
The most popular champions of Karmine Corp
The most popular and successful top line champions are Gragas (3 matches, 100% wins) and Kennen (3 matches, 66% wins).
Wukong (6 games, 33% wins) and Sejuani (4 matches, 100% wins) play in the forest.
The centre line is played with Ahri (4 matches, 0% wins), Tristana (3 matches, 100% wins) and Syndra (3 matches, 100% wins).
The ADC position is most often occupied by Lucian (4 matches. 50% wins), Aphelios (4 matches, 75% wins).
Nami (3 games, 66% wins), Thresh (3 matches, 100% wins) are often paired with shooters.
History of head-to-head meetings Karmine Corp - CTBC
The teams have played each other only 1 time in history, at First Stand 2025. CTBC won cleanly then.
Predicted result of the match CTBC - KC at First Stand 2025.
In this match my bet is on CTBC. They are fully deservedly playing as favourites and have shown in the group stage that they are capable of fighting and beating even the strongest teams in the world. As for KC, the European club showed a very poor performance and the only (albeit epic) win against Top Esports was more of a fluke.
Bottom line: CTBC wins.
G2 Esports
FURIA EsportsWatch match
