Welcome to EGamersWorld.
The LEC Spring 2025 group stage battles are heating up. The title tournament in the European Long Convergence region is in its 4th week of the regular season, with 10 teams continuing to gain points to qualify for the play-offs.
Among the contenders for the play-offs are Fnatic and Rogue. However, both of them are still far away from the main stage, which means that every subsequent match matters.
We're trying to figure out which of the Fnatic - Rogue pair will be stronger and why it will be Fnatic.
Let's go.
Fnatic uniforms
We open the Fnatic vs Rogue match with an analysis of Fnatic's form. In this match they are playing as favourites with odds to win at around 1.3.
Fnatic began their ascent to the LEC Regional Finals the season before last with an appearance at LEC Winter 2023. It wasn't a successful one, as the Orange finished the tourney in 9th place, not making it out of the group stage.
The following season, Fnatic gave one last chance to roster with Rekkles. They failed to use it, as FNC, after coming out of the group stage, lost in the first match against MAD Lions, thus ending the spring split on the top 8.
- Fnatic lineup: Oscarinin, Razork, Humanoid, Upset, Mikyx.
Two terrible splits resulted in major re-splits. ADC Rekkles and support Advienne left the band. In their place came Korean legionnaire Noah and experienced support Trymbi. The result was not long in coming.
Fnatic looked much better at the LEC summer split than at the two previous ones. The team managed to make it through the group stage and then made it to the top 3 of LEC Summer 2023, which allowed them to advance to the regional finals. Here's the truth, to the bottom set.
Fnatic played against Excel - the main opener of LEC Summer 2023 - in the match to advance to the Top 4 and won. They won 3-2 in a tense bo5.
In the match for the LEC Finals 2023 Small Final, Fnatic and BDS had a real fight (3-2), and Fnatic ended up here.
They also managed to beat MAD Lions, with whom they played for a place in the grand final. And again, the full-fledged bo5 with a score of 3-2 in favour of the Orange. But the grand final was not enough: G2 Esports beat Fnatic 3-1.
At Worlds 2023, Orange played to the best of their ability. The club lost the first match against LNG Esports, and then outplayed the Vietnamese from GAM Esports.
The last match on the way to a 1-2 set was a match against BLG, which Fnatic legitimately lost. Then FNC defeated C9 with a score of 2-1, and in the match for play-offs Ledge and WBG. The latter, by the way, became the vice-champion of the World Championship, so the result for the European club was excellent.
Fnatic will debut at LEC Winter 2024 with a match against Karmine Corp. Based on the experience of previous seasons, there is every chance to see the favourite (which is Fnatic) lose in that match. Next, they will face Vitality and this is where I would bet in favour of the Orange. That's pretty much how it turned out, except for the match against Karmine Corp: Fnatic closed two series, but lost in the match against SK Gaming.
Fnatic had a pretty good start to the regular season, but it got worse from there. Fnatic finished the regular season with a score of 5-4. The LEC Winter 2024 playoffs "Orange Longsong" with a very confident victory against MAD Lions. Next, Fnatic played against G2 Esports and looked good there, even managing to snatch the map, which no one has managed to do so far.
In the match for the quarter-finals Fnatic met with SK Gaming. The German club put up a fight, but Fnatic were stronger: 2-1 in favour of Humanoid and company guaranteed their passage to the top 4 of LEC Winter 2024.
In the next match, Fnatic were able to fight G2 Esports and take the map away from them, but they were unable to surpass the Samurai in the match. Fnatic also failed to get a grip on the tournament in the lower grid, where Fnatic lost to KOI with a score of 2-3. At the end of LEC Winter 2024, Fnatic finished in the top 4.
LEC Spring 2024 Fnatic finished the LEC Spring 2024 regular season in the top spot, something the team hasn't had since 2019. In the first round of the play-offs, Fnatic shut out GIANTX on a classy basis. In the match to advance to the upper grid finals, LEC Spring 2024 faced G2 and lost 0-2 without a chance. In the lower grid, they also had difficulties, like in the game against Heretics, but in the end they were able to defeat their counterparts with a score of 2-1 and move on. In the match for the top 3, Fnatic met Vitality and confidently ran them over with a score of 3-1.
For the grand final of LEC Spring 2024 Fnatic fought against BDS and it was a real spectacle: the "orange" were 0-2 down, but on the character made a reverse sweep and closed the series in their favour. As a result, Fnatic will also go to MSI 2024. In the grand finals of LEC Spring 2024 Orange played against G2 Esports and lost that match.
Mid-Season Invitational (MSI) 2024 Fnatic started off with a 2-0 win over GAM Esports without any problems at all. In the top set match they met Top Esports and put up a good fight: they took the map, but eventually lost the series with a 1-2 score. In the MSI 2024 Fnatic again defeated GAM Esports 2-0 in the play-offs match. In the first Bracket Stage match, they lost to Gen.G with a score of 0-3, but they showed the game. But in the lower Bracket Stage match, Fnatic very unexpectedly lost to TL with a score of 1-3, thus leaving MSI 2024 at the Top 8 stage.
Prior to the Esports World Cup 2024 Long Convergence, Fnatic confidently advanced to the LEC Summer 2024 play-offs. As a result of EWC 2024 Fnatic finished in the top-8. On the home stage, they finished top-2 at LEC Summer 2024 and LEC Finals 2024. However, one of the most important achievements of Fnatic is getting to Worlds 2024, where the "orange" managed to finish in the top 14.
The team passed the group stage of LEC Winter 2025 with great confidence. They only gave up 1 card for the group stage, finishing it with a score of 9-1. Playoffs Long Sogpegovali also confidently, defeating Heretics with a score of 2-0. Next up was a match against G2 Esports and a 0-2 loss. In the lower grid match of LEC Winter 2025, Fnatic played against BDS, where they barely won with a score of 2-1, mostly due to a "drain" from BDS on the third map. In the next match they looked much more confident, beating KOI 3-1. But we couldn't win against KC: 2-3 and the final top 3.
At the end of 3 weeks of the LEC Spring 2025 regular season, Fnatic have a 3-1 series statistic, which temporarily gives them the third place.
Fnatic's most popular champions
Jax (3 matches, 33% wins), Gwen (2 matches, 50% wins), Gangplank (2 matches, 50% wins), Jayce (2 games, 50% wins) take the top line.
In the woods, Maokai (7 matches, 42% wins), Sejuani (4 games, 25% wins), Vi (3 games, 66% wins) were permanent.
The centre line was most often occupied by Sylas (5 matches, 40% wins), Ryze (3 games, 100% wins), Akali (2 games, 0 wins).
Zeri and Sivir peaked equally often on the shooter position. Both heroes appeared 4 times, but the former won all his games, and the latter - none.
Ashe appeared most often amongst the Spurrots. Archer was chosen 5 times and won 2 matches. Yuumi (4 matches, 75% wins), Heimerdinger (4 matches, 25% wins) were also frequently played.
Rogue's form
We continue our analysis of the Rogue vs Fnatic match with a breakdown of Rogue's form. In this match, they play the number two with win odds around 5.
Rogue missed all of 2023 and only returned to the competitive League of Legends in the run-up to 2024. This was a logical decision, as Rogue had a strong showing in 2022, but something went wrong.
First, they proved themselves at LEC Spring 2022, reaching the grand finals of the Spring Split. Then G2 stepped in and prevented Rogue from ending the season with a triumph.
However, fortune proved favourable in the next European league. At LEC Summer 2022, Rogue finished top 3 in the group stage, and then played a pretty tough play-offs: a 3-2 win over MAD Lions, a 0-3 loss to G2, a small final win over Fnatic, and finally an undisputed championship with a 3-0 win over G2.
Rogue visited Worlds 2022 in October the season before last. They had low expectations, but Rogue exceeded many people's expectations by making it to the play-offs. At the end of the tournament, the team finished in the top 8, which is an absolute success for the residents of Europe.
- Rogue line-up: Adam, Malrang, Larssen, Patrix, Execute.
In the new season the core of Koi plays for Rogue, which is quite logical, because the club absorbed the slot of the Spanish organisation.
In the first match, Rogue will meet SK Gaming. I expect a win in the first match for the "new" team within the LEC. Next - the game against Heretics and here it will not be easier than in the match with SK: "Heretics" look good, and their roster is probably one of the most combative in the new LEC. In the end Rogue Ledge and Heretics beat G2 Esports, who are considered to be the main favourites for the tournament, but then lost to SK Gaming.
The first week Rogue went 1-2, which is not good, but not critical. But things got much worse, which led Rogue to a 2-6 statistic before Long Sogpeg's final match. And they lost that one, thus finishing in the top 9.
LEC Spring 2024 Rogue failed. Just like at LEC Winter 2024, the team did not make it out of the group stage, finishing in the top 9. It was not much better at LEC Summer 2024, where Rogue did not show anything: TOP-10.
Rogue also visited LEC Winter 2025 where they showed a "standard" game for themselves - TOP-10. There is no play-offs to speak of.
In 3 weeks of LEC Spring 2025 Rogue have 1-4 statistics and are in the last line in the group.
Most Popular Rogue Champions
Ornn (4 matches, 25% wins), Gangplank (4 matches, 100% wins), Gnar (4 games, 50% wins), and Gwen (4 matches, 50% wins) have been equally weaponised on top.
Wukong (4 matches, 75% wins), Vi (3 games, 33% wins), Trundle (3 matches, 33% wins) played in the forest.
Azir (6 matches, 66% wins), Taliyah (4 games, 25% wins) played on the centre.
ADC position was closed with Kalista (5 matches, 40% of wins), Ezrael (3 matches, 66% of wins), Sivir (3 matches, 66% of wins).
Renata Glasc (3 games, 33% wins), Rakan (3 matches, 100% wins), Nami (2 matches, 100% wins) were selected for the tournament.
History of head-to-head meetings between Rogue and Fnatic
Over the last 5 series Rogue have won only 1 time out of 5.
Predicted result of the match Fnatic - Rogue at LEC Spring 2025 Regular Season
In this match I'm betting on Fnatic. As far as I am concerned, this will be one of the easiest matches for the Orange and Rogue will certainly have no difficulties.
Bottom line: Fnatic wins.
G2 Esports
FURIA EsportsWatch match
