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We are still in the group stage of LEC Winter 2024. There are 10 teams (9 to be exact) fighting for 8 spots in the play-offs of the tournament.
The play-offs are an important Milestone, as it is there that two slots for the biggest tournaments for Europe (and beyond) in the 2024 season will be played: Mid-Season Invitational 2024 and LEC Finals 2024. Among the contenders for the play-offs are Fnatic and MAD Lions KOI.
Both teams are top teams, and their performance at Worlds 2023 is proof of that. Let's see who of the pair Fnatic - MAD Lions KOI will earn an important victory ahead of the distribution of places in the main stage of the championship.
Let's go.
Fnatic uniforms
Let's start the match analysis with Fnatic's form. In this match Orange are playing as favourites, with a minimum margin of 1.5, which is quite average for Bo1.
Fnatic started their rise to the LEC Regional Finals last season with an appearance at LEC Winter 2023. It wasn't a successful one, as the Orange finished the tourney in 9th place, not making it out of the group stage.
The following season, Fnatic gave one last chance to roster with Rekkles. They failed to use it, as FNC, after coming out of the group stage, lost in their first match against MAD Lions, thus ending the spring split at the top 8.
- Fnatic lineup: Oscarinin, Razork, Humanoid, Noah, Jon.
Two terrible splits resulted in major re-splits. ADC Rekkles and support Advienne left the band. In their place came Korean legionnaire Noah and experienced support Trymbi. The result was not long in coming.
Fnatic looked much better at the LEC summer split than at the two previous ones. The team managed to make it through the group stage and then made it to the top 3 of LEC Summer 2023, which allowed them to advance to the regional finals. Here's the truth, to the bottom set.
Fnatic played against Excel - the main opener of LEC Summer 2023 - in the match to advance to the Top 4 and won. They won 3-2 in a tense bo5.
In the match for the LEC Finals 2023 Small Final, Fnatic and BDS had a real fight (3-2), and Fnatic ended up here.
They also managed to beat MAD Lions, with whom they played for a place in the grand final. And again, the full-fledged bo5 with a score of 3-2 in favour of the Orange. But the grand final was not enough: G2 Esports beat Fnatic 3-1.
At Worlds 2023, Orange played to the best of their ability. The club lost the first match against LNG Esports, and then outplayed the Vietnamese from GAM Esports. The last match on the way to a 1-2 set was a match against BLG, which Fnatic legitimately lost. Then FNC defeated C9 with a score of 2-1, and in the match for play-offs Ledge and WBG. The latter, by the way, became the vice-champion of the World Championship, so the result for the European club was excellent.
Fnatic will debut at LEC Winter 2024 with a match against Karmine Corp. Based on the experience of previous seasons, there is every chance to see the favourite (which is Fnatic) lose in that match. Next, they will face Vitality and this is where I would bet in favour of the Orange. That's how it turned out, except for the match against Karmine Corp: Fnatic closed two series, but lost in the match against SK Gaming.
Before the Long Cog of the third week of LEC Winter 2024, Fnatic share the second position in the standings with G2 Esports, SK Gaming and Team Heretics. The Orange have a 4-2 statistic.
Fnatic's most popular champions
Jax (3 matches, 33% wins), Gwen (2 matches, 50% wins), Gangplank (2 matches, 50% wins), Jayce (2 games, 50% wins) take the top line.
In the woods, Maokai (7 matches, 42% wins), Sejuani (4 games, 25% wins), Vi (3 games, 66% wins) were permanent.
The centre line was most often occupied by Sylas (5 matches, 40% wins), Ryze (3 games, 100% wins), Akali (2 games, 0 wins).
Zeri and Sivir peaked equally often on the shooter position. Both heroes appeared 4 times, but the former won all his games, and the latter - none.
Ashe appeared most often amongst the Spurrots. Archer was chosen 5 times and won 2 matches. Yuumi (4 matches, 75% wins), Heimerdinger (4 matches, 25% wins) were also frequently played.
MAD Lions KOI uniforms
We continue our match review with an analysis of MAD Lions KOI's form. In this match they will have to play the number two, with odds to win at around 2.4.
In 2023 the team took 2nd place at LEC Winter 2023 and won LEC Spring 2023, which we would like to pay special attention to.
By the LEC Spring split, it seemed like the MAD Lions were done. "The Lions made up for the tiebreaker in the group stage and barely made it to the group stage. There with fights, sweat and blood they reached the play-offs, where in the first round in a tough Bo5 they defeated their future rival - G2 Esports, but even there the misfortunes did not end: they needed to defeat Vitality (3-1) and make Reverse Sweep against BDS in the grand final.
- MAD Lions lineup: Chasy, Elyoya, Nisqy, Carzzy, Hylissang
The Lions have a fighting roster, no doubt about it. They have proved it many times in practice, which, however, does not always lead to high performance, first of all on the international stage, but sometimes on the home stage as well.
For example, MSI 2023 and top 8 there, which is good in principle, but the result at LEC Summer 2023 is already sad. At the last LEC Championships MAD Lions, the reigning Spring Split champions, crashed out at the Top 7 position, which is clearly not the level.
LEC Finals 2023 MAD Lions started with a match against EXCEL. The opening match of the summer split against MAD Lions temporarily confirmed the thesis of a one-tournament team, losing to the "lions" with a score of 0-3 without a chance.
In the match before that, MAD Lions played against G2 Esports. Obviously, they lost, with a score of 1-3.
In the battle for a slot at the LEC Finals 2023 Grand Final, MAD Lions Ledge and Fnatic. The colourful game ended with the score 2-3 in favour of the Orange. Thus, MAD Lions qualified for the Worlds 2023 on the third quota from Europe.
"Lions" Long Sogpeg at Worlds 2023 with a loss to Cloud9 and continued their performance on the main stage of the year with a win in the European derby against BDS. In the third game, MAD Lions Ledge fought through a seemingly passable match against NRG Esports. In the decisive match at Worlds 2023, the team played against Weibo. Decisive because MAD Lions Ledge went 0-2 and crashed out of the Worlds.
MAD Lions will try to return to the top of the European League of Legends with a match against Team Heretics. It will be difficult for the Lions there, but they should win the game against SK Gaming, sort of. On the whole, it turned out to be the opposite: we beat Heretics and lost to SK Gaming. In the third match we played against Karmine Corp and it was a real extravaganza: The International ernet war between fans, about 750,000 thousand spectators at the peak and the final victory of MAD Lions.
The first week ended with a score of 2-1. The second was worse - already 1-2 and as a result, now the Lions are in a very precarious position with a score of 3-3.
Most Popular MAD Lions Champions
Fiora (2 matches, 100% wins) and KSante (2 matches, 50% wins) appeared in the top for MAD Lions most often. Renekton (1 game, 100% wins) and Gnar (1 game and that defeat) were also taken.
Sejuani (3 matches, 66% wins) is popular in the forest. Next is Wukong with 2 appearances and 50% wins, and there was also Maokai who won his only match.
On the centre line, Viktor (1-1) and Akali (1-1) have 2 matches each. Azir and Sylas won their matches.
Among shooters Varus appeared most often (3 matches, 66% of wins). Lucian was picked 2 times (1-1) and Sivir was picked once more (1-0).
Thresh (1-1), Lulu (1-1) were picked more often than others. Nami and Ashe, who appeared 1 time each, won their matches.
History of head-to-head meetings between Fnatic and MAD Lions KOI
This will be the 6th match between MAD Lions KOI and Fnatic. The score is disappointing for MAD Lions: 1-4 in favour of Fnatic in the series.
Predicted result of MAD Lions KOI vs Fnatic at LEC Winter 2024
In this match I expect a close game from the teams, but with Fnatic having the edge. They look more promising and as far as I'm concerned, they should close this Bo1 series.
Bottom line: Fnatic wins.
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