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The matches of the debut professional tournament in Europe in season 15 continue. LEC Winter 2025 returns to our screens with the matches of the last game week.
Opening the final leg of the second week of LEC Winter 2025 will be Vitality and Rogue. The match will take place on the 27th of January at 18:00 CET.
We are trying to figure out who from the Vitality - Rogue pairing will be stronger and earn important points ahead of the Long Sogpeg final of the LEC Winter 2025 group stage.
Let's go.
Vitality uniforms
We open the breakdown of the Vitality vs Rogue match with an analysis of Vitality's form. In this match they are favourites to win with odds of 1.6.
Vitality started last season by competing at LEC Winter 2023. In the regular season, Vitality went over the heads of their opponents: they played it 7-2 and then went to play the group stage, where they had much less luck. So much so that Vitality failed to get out of their basket, Ledgeiv SK Gaming and KOI. As a result, the top 5.
Next up was an appearance at LEC Spring 2024. This was Vitality's best split where they managed to make it to the top 3. However, that was enough for exactly nothing: just Top 3.
The last tournament last season for Vitality was LEC Summer 2023. And it was a total fiasco: Vitality had their worst performance of the year, going 1-8 in the regular season and finishing the split in the top 10.
- Vitality lineup: Naak Nako, Lyncas, Czajek, Carzyy, Hylissang.
The team has a pretty strong lineup, but the realisation is Vitality's kryptonite.
In the first match of LEC Winter 2024, Team Vitality will play against GIANTX, where I see problems for the Bees. I think EXCEL's peppy core will give Vitality a boost. And so it happened. And two more defeats later, against Fnatic and Team BDS.
Vitality were actually pleasantly surprised. After Long Sogpeg 0-3, the "bees" managed to comeback on a score of 4-5, thus making it to the next stage of the tournament.
In the first round of the LEC Winter 2024 play-offs Vitality played against SK Gaming. Surprisingly, the French were very convincing and closed the series with a score of 2-0. However, things were not so rosy after that, as Vitality played a derby against BDS, which ended with a super confident victory of the latter. The next match was the last one for Vitality in LEC Winter 2024. They played it against MAD Lions KOI and lost with a score of 0-2.
At the end of LEC Winter 2024 Vitality were ranked in the top 6. In the spring split Vitality performed much better and made it to the top 4. In Summer 2024, Vitality clearly failed, finishing in the top 9 and thus failing to make it to Worlds 2024.
The first week of LEC Winter 2025 Vitality did not go well: they lost to Fnatic and KOI, but closed BDS. The new week of confrontations at LEC Winter 2025 will open with a match against G2 Esports, followed by a match against SK Gaming.
Vitality's most popular champions
The most frequent guest on the top line is Jax (2 matches, 100% wins). Also picked were KSante, Gnar, Gwen and Ornn, Renekton and Gragas. Ornn and Renekton lost their matches, not quite hitting the season 13 meta.
Bo predominantly played as Vi. One of the most meta characters of the season appeared in spades 4 times and won all his games. There was also Sejuani and Maokai (2 games and 1 win each).
On the centre line, Azir was the favourite character (3 games, 100% wins). The Croatian also played Ryze, Syndra, Cassiopeia, Tristana, LeBlanc and Taliyah. Only Tristana and LeBlanc lost.
Of the shooters, Zeri (3 games, 66% wins), Ezreal (2 matches, 100% wins), Varus (2 games, 100% wins) appeared most often. Caitlyn and Sivir peaked once each: the former won her game and the latter lost.
Of the supporting characters, Yummi (3 games, 33% wins), Ashe (2 games, 100% wins) played three times. Leona, Braum, Nami and Lux won once each.
Rogue Form
We continue our analysis of the Rogue vs Vitality match with an analysis of Rogue's form. In this match they will play as the underdog with odds to win at around 2.1.
Rogue missed all of 2023 and only returned to the competitive League of Legends in the run-up to 2024. This was a logical decision, as Rogue had a strong showing in 2022, but something went wrong.
First, they proved themselves at LEC Spring 2022, reaching the grand finals of the Spring Split. Then G2 stepped in and prevented Rogue from ending the season with a triumph.
However, fortune proved favourable in the next European league. At LEC Summer 2022, Rogue finished top 3 in the group stage, and then played a pretty tough play-offs: a 3-2 win over MAD Lions, a 0-3 loss to G2, a small final win over Fnatic, and finally an undisputed championship with a 3-0 win over G2.
Rogue visited Worlds 2022 in October the season before last. They had low expectations, but Rogue exceeded many people's expectations by making it to the play-offs. At the end of the tournament, the team finished in the top 8, which is an absolute success for the residents of Europe.
- Rogue line-up: Adam, Malrang, Larssen, Patrix, Execute.
In the new season the core of Koi plays for Rogue, which is quite logical, because the club absorbed the slot of the Spanish organisation.
In the first match, Rogue will meet SK Gaming. I expect a win in the first match for the "new" team within the LEC. Next - the game against Heretics and here it will not be easier than in the match with SK: "Heretics" look good, and their roster is probably one of the most combative in the new LEC. In the end Rogue Ledge and Heretics beat G2 Esports, who are considered to be the main favourites for the tournament, but then lost to SK Gaming.
The first week Rogue went 1-2, which is not good, but not critical. But things got much worse, which led Rogue to a 2-6 statistic before Long Sogpeg's final match. And they lost that one, thus finishing in the top 9.
LEC Spring 2024 Rogue failed. Just like at LEC Winter 2024, the team did not make it out of the group stage, finishing in the top 9. It was not much better at LEC Summer 2024, where Rogue did not show anything: TOP-10.
Rogue went 1-2 in their debut week at LEC Winter 2025, which is better than I expected: they beat Heretics, but Ledge beat GiantX and BDS. Week 2 will open with a match against Fnatic and then meet Karmine Corp.
Rogue's most popular champions
Ornn (4 matches, 25% wins), Gangplank (4 matches, 100% wins), Gnar (4 games, 50% wins), and Gwen (4 matches, 50% wins) were equally weaponised on top.
Wukong (4 matches, 75% wins), Vi (3 games, 33% wins), Trundle (3 matches, 33% wins) played in the forest.
Azir (6 matches, 66% wins), Taliyah (4 games, 25% wins) played on the centre.
ADC position was closed with Kalista (5 matches, 40% of wins), Ezrael (3 matches, 66% of wins), Sivir (3 matches, 66% of wins).
Renata Glasc (3 games, 33% wins), Rakan (3 matches, 100% wins), Nami (2 matches, 100% wins) were selected for the tournament.
History of head-to-head meetings between Rogue and Vitality
The teams have played each other three times in the 2024 season, with Vitality winning twice and Rogue, once.
Predicted result of Vitality vs Rogue at LEC Winter 2025
This is a pretty controversial matchup. Through the first week of LEC Winter 2025, the teams have looked equally bad. Despite Rogue's background this season, they managed to go 1-2 for the week, as did Vitality. However, I'll put my faith in the Bees' spirit and bet on them to win, although I wouldn't be surprised if they lose here to a stillborn Rogue roster.
Bottom line: Vitality wins.
DarkZero
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