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The LEC 2024 Summer Split has just ended with a solid win for G2 Esports, as the European League of Legends approaches a new stage. That stage is the LEC Finals 2024, where 6 teams will play for 2 slots at Worlds 2024.
Fnatic and BDS are among the contenders to qualify for Worlds 2024. Both teams definitely want to get to the main tournament of the year and will report for this maximum effort.
Let's try to find out which of the Fnatic - BDS pair will be stronger and make it to the next round of the LEC Finals 2024 upper grid, and who will fall to the lower grid, where they will have to play against GIANTX.
Let's go.
Fnatic Form
We open our breakdown of the Fnatic vs BDS match with an analysis of Fnatic's match form. In this match, they play the number one with odds to win at around 1.3.
Fnatic started their rise to the LEC Regional Finals last season with an appearance at LEC Winter 2023. It wasn't a successful one, as the Orange finished in 9th place and didn't make it out of the group stage.
The following season, Fnatic gave one last chance to roster with Rekkles. They failed to use it, as FNC, after coming out of the group stage, lost in their first match against MAD Lions, thus ending the spring split at the top 8.
- Fnatic lineup: Oscarinin, Razork, Humanoid, Noah, Jun.
Two terrible splits resulted in major re-splits. ADC Rekkles and support Advienne left the band. In their place came Korean legionnaire Noah and experienced support Trymbi. The result was not long in coming.
Fnatic looked much better at the LEC summer split than at the two previous ones. The team managed to make it through the group stage and then made it to the top 3 of LEC Summer 2023, which allowed them to advance to the regional finals. Here's the truth, to the bottom set.
Fnatic played against Excel - the main opener of LEC Summer 2023 - in the match to advance to the Top 4 and won. They won 3-2 in a tense bo5.
In the match for the LEC Finals 2023 Small Final, Fnatic and BDS had a real fight (3-2), and Fnatic ended up here.
They also managed to beat MAD Lions, with whom they played for a place in the grand final. And again, the full-fledged bo5 with a score of 3-2 in favour of the Orange. But the grand final was not enough: G2 Esports beat Fnatic 3-1.
At Worlds 2023, Orange played to the best of their ability. The club lost the first match against LNG Esports, and then outplayed the Vietnamese from GAM Esports.
The last match on the way to a 1-2 set was a match against BLG, which Fnatic legitimately lost. Then FNC defeated C9 with a score of 2-1, and in the match for play-offs Ledge and WBG. The latter, by the way, became the vice-champion of the World Championship, so the result for the European club was excellent.
Fnatic will debut at LEC Winter 2024 with a match against Karmine Corp. Based on the experience of previous seasons, there is every chance to see the favourite (which is Fnatic) lose in that match. Next, they will face Vitality and this is where I would bet in favour of the Orange. That's pretty much how it turned out, except for the match against Karmine Corp: Fnatic closed two series, but lost in the match against SK Gaming.
Fnatic had a pretty good start to the regular season, but it got worse from there. Fnatic finished the regular season with a score of 5-4. The LEC Winter 2024 playoffs "Orange Longsong" with a very confident victory against MAD Lions. Next, Fnatic played against G2 Esports and looked good there, even managing to snatch the map, which no one has managed to do so far.
In the match for the quarter-finals Fnatic met with SK Gaming. The German club put up a fight, but Fnatic were stronger: 2-1 in favour of Humanoid and company guaranteed their passage to the top 4 of LEC Winter 2024.
In the next match, Fnatic were able to fight G2 Esports and take the map away from them, but they were unable to surpass the Samurai in the match. Fnatic also failed to get a chance to continue their participation in the tournament in the lower grid, where Fnatic lost to MAD Lions KOI with a score of 2-3. At the end of LEC Winter 2024, Fnatic finished in the top 4.
LEC Spring 2024 Fnatic finished the LEC Spring 2024 regular season in the top spot, something the team hasn't had since 2019. In the first round of the play-offs, Fnatic shut out GIANTX on a classy basis. In the match to advance to the upper grid finals, LEC Spring 2024 faced G2 and lost 0-2 without a chance. In the lower grid, they also had difficulties, like in the game against Heretics, but in the end they were able to defeat their counterparts with a score of 2-1 and move on. In the match for the top 3, Fnatic met Vitality and confidently ran them over with a score of 3-1.
For the grand final of LEC Spring 2024 Fnatic fought against BDS and it was a real spectacle: the "orange" were 0-2 down, but on the character made a reverse sweep and closed the series in their favour. As a result, Fnatic will also go to MSI 2024. In the grand finals of LEC Spring 2024 Orange played against G2 Esports and lost that match.
Mid-Season Invitational (MSI) 2024 Fnatic started off with a 2-0 win over GAM Esports without any problems at all. In the top set match they met Top Esports and put up a good fight: they took the map, but eventually lost the series with a 1-2 score. In the MSI 2024 Fnatic again defeated GAM Esports 2-0 in the play-offs match. In the first Bracket Stage match, they lost to Gen.G with a score of 0-3, but they showed the game. But in the lower Bracket Stage match, Fnatic very unexpectedly lost to TL with a score of 1-3, thus leaving MSI 2024 at the Top 8 stage.
Before the Esports World Cup 2024, Fnatic confidently entered the LEC Summer 2024 play-offs with a score of 6-3. At the EWC tournament itself, Fnatic finished in the top 6.
They started the LEC Summer 2024 playoffs with a match against GiantX, where they were total favourites to win the card. In the next match, SK Gaming was shut out, which was a minimal sensation at the play-offs. In the grand final they defeated G2 Esports, but in the decisive match they could not repeat the success of the top grid: G2 swept Fnatic with a score of 3-0.
Fnatic's most popular champions
Jax (3 matches, 33% wins), Gwen (2 matches, 50% wins), Gangplank (2 matches, 50% wins), Jayce (2 games, 50% wins) take the top line.
In the woods, Maokai (7 matches, 42% wins), Sejuani (4 games, 25% wins), Vi (3 games, 66% wins) were permanent.
The centre line was most often occupied by Sylas (5 matches, 40% wins), Ryze (3 games, 100% wins), Akali (2 games, 0 wins).
Zeri and Sivir peaked equally often on the shooter position. Both heroes appeared 4 times, but the former won all his games, and the latter - none.
Ashe appeared most often amongst the Spurrots. Archer was chosen 5 times and won 2 matches. Yuumi (4 matches, 75% wins), Heimerdinger (4 matches, 25% wins) were also frequently played.
BDS Form
We continue the analysis of the match BDS - Fnatic with the analysis of BDS form. The French club plays as the number two with odds to win around 3.4.
At LEC Winter 2023 BDS made it to the group stage, but quickly fell out of there, taking the last place in their quartet. The result was a top-7 finish.
Next up was LEC Spring 2023 and BDS' moment of glory. Completely unexpectedly, they reached the grand final, but there they lost to MAD Lions, who were on a terrific spree in the spring.
- BDS line-up: Adam, Sheo, nuc, ice, Labrov.
Before LEC Finals 2023 BDS played at LEC Summer 2023. They were one map short of reaching the play-offs. The championship ended on the 5th place.
Thanks to the near top places and TOP 2 at LEC Spring 2023 BDS managed to get to LEC Finals 2023, and also to the top grid, where they got to G2 Esports in the first round. The International didn't end up with anything interesting and G2 had no trouble closing out the match with a 3-1 score.
After the defeat from the main favourite of LEC Finals 2023 - G2 Esports - BDS played against SK Gaming. The German club was unable to give anything to the French and fell with a score of 0-3.
However, BDS' path to the LEC Finals 2023 ended with the game against SK. The team lost to Fnatic 2-3 in the next round of the lower bracket, thus failing to make it into the top 3 of the tournament for direct participation in the main tournament.
BDS have already started Worlds 2023 on a positive note. They ran over Golden Guardians at the Worlds Qualifying Series, thus snatching a slot in the same Play-In.
After a confidence-boosting win over GG at the Worlds Qualifying Series, BDS unexpectedly fell in their first match at Worlds 2023. They lost to No. 2 Vietnam, thus becoming the main losers of the World Championship so far.
They managed to partially rehabilitate themselves in the match against DFM. The Japanese club did not provide proper resistance and BDS closed the series with a very simple 2-0.
In the match for the exit here BDS played against CTBC. The Frenchmen outclassed their opponents, closing the series 2-0.
BDS battled PSG Talon to advance to the group stage. The French were a map away from elimination, but on the third map Adam and his Olaf gave his team a chance to clinch a comeback and BDS took it: a reverse sweep in the group stage match actually allowed BDS to qualify for the group stage.
In the group stage of Worlds 2023, BDS first ran into JD Gaming. Obviously, the first team of the world was not up to the French and they lost without much of a chance. Next was a match against MAD Lions and again an ironclad defeat. The BDS final at Worlds 2023 was as ignominious as their entire stay at the tournament - they lost 0-2 to Dplus.
BDS will make their LEC Winter 2024 debut against G2 Esports. Cheers to them! Later on it will be a match against GIANTX, which will be easier, but not easy.
BDS had almost no equal in the regular season of LEC Winter 2024. The French club lost only 2 matches: the first one of the year against G2 Esports and the last one in the regular season against Karmine Corp.
In the play-offs LEC Winter 2024 met Team Heretics. There, the French beat Heretics 2-0 on class. The quarter-finals were not much harder for BDS: again a confident 2-0 win, but now against Vitality. They fell to the lower set after a scoreless defeat to G2 Esports in the small final of the upper set. And already there, they lost to MAD Lions.
LEC Spring 2024 was not bad, but they couldn't reach MSI 2024. They were hampered by Fnatic, who knocked out BDS in the grand final match.
BDS made it to the LEC Summer 2024 play-offs with great confidence, sharing the regular season top 1 with SK Gaming. The playoffs of the Long Sogpeg Championship started with a 2-1 win over MAD Lions KOI. Then met with G2 Esports and the outcome was more than obvious - 0-2 in favour of G2. Falling into the bottom set BSD outlasted GiantX, closing out the series with a score of 2-1. Prior to this match, BDS played against Karmine Corp and it was a pretty tough match, but still ended with a 3-2 win for BDS. But in the match to reach the grand finals they were unlucky to meet G2: 1-3 and a Top 3 elimination.
The most popular BDS champions
On the top line the most frequent picks are K'Sante (4 matches, 50% wins), Gnar (3 matches, 100% wins).
Foresters picks are Wukong (4 matches, 50% wins), Vi (2 matches, 50% wins), Nocturne (2 matches, 50% wins), Viego (2 matches, 0% wins).
On the centre line Gragas (4 matches, 50% wins), Annie (4 matches, 50% wins).
Aphelios (6 matches, 33% wins), Jinx (3 matches, 66% wins), Zeri (2 matches, 100% wins).
Everything is also stable on the bargaining table: Lulu (3 matches, 66% wins), Rakan (3 games, 0% wins), Nautilus (2 matches, 50% wins).
History of head-to-head meetings between BDS and Fnatic
In the season 2024 the teams played each other 4 times. The statistics is disappointing for Fnatic: 1-3.
Predicted result of Fnatic vs BDS at LEC Regional Finals 2024
In this match I expect Fnatic to win. Despite the consistent difficulties in matches specifically against BDS, I expect a good performance from the Orange, which they showed in the LEC Summer 2024 matches.
Bottom line: Fnatic wins.
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