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The European League of Legends is gaining momentum with LEC Winter 2025. There, in case you've forgotten, are play-offs.
We will be talking about the lower grid of the LEC Winter 2025 play-offs, namely the match between Fnatic and KOI. The format of the match is Bo5.
We will see who from the pair Fnatic - KOI will be stronger and will go to the next round of LEC Winter 2025, making it to the top 3, and who will have to say goodbye to the chances to go to the First Stand Tournament and represent the region there.
Let's go.
Fnatic Form
Let's open the Fnatic vs KOI match with an analysis of Fnatic's form. In this match they play as favourites with odds to win at around 1.7.
Fnatic started their ascent to the LEC Regional Finals the season before last with an appearance at LEC Winter 2023. It wasn't a successful one, as the Orange finished the tourney in 9th place, not making it out of the group stage.
The following season, Fnatic gave one last chance to roster with Rekkles. They failed to use it, as FNC, after coming out of the group stage, lost in the first match against MAD Lions, thus ending the spring split on the top 8.
- Fnatic lineup: Oscarinin, Razork, Humanoid, Upset, Mikyx.
Two terrible splits resulted in major re-splits. ADC Rekkles and support Advienne left the band. In their place came Korean legionnaire Noah and experienced support Trymbi. The result was not long in coming.
Fnatic looked much better at the LEC summer split than at the two previous ones. The team managed to make it through the group stage and then made it to the top 3 of LEC Summer 2023, which allowed them to advance to the regional finals. Here's the truth, to the bottom set.
Fnatic played against Excel - the main opener of LEC Summer 2023 - in the match to advance to the Top 4 and won. They won 3-2 in a tense bo5.
In the match for the LEC Finals 2023 Small Final, Fnatic and BDS had a real fight (3-2), and Fnatic ended up here.
They also managed to beat MAD Lions, with whom they played for a place in the grand final. And again, the full-fledged bo5 with a score of 3-2 in favour of the Orange. But the grand final was not enough: G2 Esports beat Fnatic 3-1.
At Worlds 2023, Orange played to the best of their ability. The club lost the first match against LNG Esports, and then outplayed the Vietnamese from GAM Esports.
The last match on the way to a 1-2 set was a match against BLG, which Fnatic legitimately lost. Then FNC defeated C9 with a score of 2-1, and in the match for play-offs Ledge and WBG. The latter, by the way, became the vice-champion of the World Championship, so the result for the European club was excellent.
Fnatic will debut at LEC Winter 2024 with a match against Karmine Corp. Based on the experience of previous seasons, there is every chance to see the favourite (which is Fnatic) lose in that match. Next, they will face Vitality and this is where I would bet in favour of the Orange. That's pretty much how it turned out, except for the match against Karmine Corp: Fnatic closed two series, but lost in the match against SK Gaming.
Fnatic had a pretty good start to the regular season, but it got worse from there. Fnatic finished the regular season with a score of 5-4. The LEC Winter 2024 playoffs "Orange Longsong" with a very confident victory against MAD Lions. Next, Fnatic played against G2 Esports and looked good there, even managing to snatch the map, which no one has managed to do so far.
In the match for the quarter-finals Fnatic met with SK Gaming. The German club put up a fight, but Fnatic were stronger: 2-1 in favour of Humanoid and company guaranteed their passage to the top 4 of LEC Winter 2024.
In the next match, Fnatic were able to fight G2 Esports and take the map away from them, but they were unable to surpass the Samurai in the match. Fnatic also failed to get a grip on the tournament in the lower grid, where Fnatic lost to KOI with a score of 2-3. At the end of LEC Winter 2024, Fnatic finished in the top 4.
LEC Spring 2024 Fnatic finished the LEC Spring 2024 regular season in the top spot, something the team hasn't had since 2019. In the first round of the play-offs, Fnatic shut out GIANTX on a classy basis. In the match to advance to the upper grid finals, LEC Spring 2024 faced G2 and lost 0-2 without a chance. In the lower grid, they also had difficulties, like in the game against Heretics, but in the end they were able to defeat their counterparts with a score of 2-1 and move on. In the match for the top 3, Fnatic met Vitality and confidently ran them over with a score of 3-1.
For the grand final of LEC Spring 2024 Fnatic fought against BDS and it was a real spectacle: the "orange" were 0-2 down, but on the character made a reverse sweep and closed the series in their favour. As a result, Fnatic will also go to MSI 2024. In the grand finals of LEC Spring 2024 Orange played against G2 Esports and lost that match.
Mid-Season Invitational (MSI) 2024 Fnatic started off with a 2-0 win over GAM Esports without any problems at all. In the top set match they met Top Esports and put up a good fight: they took the map, but eventually lost the series with a 1-2 score. In the MSI 2024 Fnatic again defeated GAM Esports 2-0 in the play-offs match. In the first Bracket Stage match, they lost to Gen.G with a score of 0-3, but they showed the game. But in the lower Bracket Stage match, Fnatic very unexpectedly lost to TL with a score of 1-3, thus leaving MSI 2024 at the Top 8 stage.
Prior to the Esports World Cup 2024 Long Convergence, Fnatic confidently advanced to the LEC Summer 2024 play-offs. As a result of EWC 2024 Fnatic finished in the top-8. On the home stage, they finished top-2 at LEC Summer 2024 and LEC Finals 2024. However, one of the most important achievements of Fnatic is getting to Worlds 2024, where the "orange" managed to get into the TOP-14.
The team passed the group stage of LEC Winter 2025 very confidently. They only gave up 1 card for the group stage, finishing it with a score of 9-1. Playoffs Long Sogpegovali also confidently, defeating Heretics with a score of 2-0. Next up was a match against G2 Esports and a 0-2 loss. In the LEC Winter 2025 lower grid match, Fnatic played against BDS, where they barely won with a score of 2-1, thanks in large part to a "drain" from BDS on the third map.
Fnatic's most popular champions
Jax (3 matches, 33% wins), Gwen (2 matches, 50% wins), Gangplank (2 matches, 50% wins), Jayce (2 games, 50% wins) take the top line.
In the woods, Maokai (7 matches, 42% wins), Sejuani (4 games, 25% wins), Vi (3 games, 66% wins) were permanent.
The centre line was most often occupied by Sylas (5 matches, 40% wins), Ryze (3 games, 100% wins), Akali (2 games, 0 wins).
Zeri and Sivir peaked equally often on the shooter position. Both heroes appeared 4 times, but the former won all his games, and the latter - none.
Ashe appeared most often amongst the Spurrots. Archer was chosen 5 times and won 2 matches. Yuumi (4 matches, 75% wins), Heimerdinger (4 matches, 25% wins) were also frequently played.
KOI Form
We continue the KOI vs Fnatic match with the analysis of KOI form. In this match they play as an outsider with odds to win around 1.9.
KOI has been "inside" the LEC ecosystem for a long time and they are either in the main tournament, i.e. LEC, or out of it. So, for example, last season KOI was actually MAD Lions. If we talk about KOI as a separate organisation, then everything is quite modest there.
- KOI roster: Myrwyn, Elyoya, Jojopyun, Supa, Alvaro.
In the 2023 season, KOI participated in the LEC. They didn't have much success. After a top performance at LEC Winter 2023, where KOI finished top 3, they were top 6 and top 8 at LEC Spring 2023 and LEC Summer 2023 respectively. However, KOI's roster is pretty fighting, as the core of MAD Lions remained, and they used to be a pretty strong competitor for G2 and Fnatic level tops.
After "comeback" on the big stage of League of Legends, KOI showed themselves perfectly in the group stage of LEC Winter 2025. The team won it 6-3, sharing the position with G2 and Karmine Corp. Once in the LEC Winter 2025 play-offs, KOI beat BDS 2-0, but then Ledge and Karmine Corp 2-0. In the bottom set of the main stage, they beat GiantX by a score of 0-2.
Most Popular MAD Lions Champions
Fiora (2 matches, 100% wins) and K'Sante (2 matches, 50% wins) appeared in the top for MAD Lions most often. Renekton (1 game, 100% wins) and Gnar (1 game and that defeat) were also taken.
Sejuani (3 matches, 66% wins) is popular in the forest. Next is Wukong with 2 appearances and 50% wins, and there was also Maokai who won his only match.
On the centre line, Viktor (1-1) and Akali (1-1) have 2 matches each. Azir and Sylas won their matches.
Among shooters Varus appeared most often (3 matches, 66% of wins). Lucian was picked 2 times (1-1) and Sivir was picked once more (1-0).
Thresh (1-1), Lulu (1-1) were picked more often than others. Nami and Ashe, who appeared 1 time each, won their matches.
History of head-to-head meetings KOI - Fnatic
In the season 2025 the teams played each other once. Fnatic won.
Predicted result of the match Fnatic - KOI at LEC Winter 2025
In this match my bet is on Fnatic. Even though Fnatic had a bad game against BDS, I think they will pull it together and beat KOI.
Bottom line: Fnatic wins.
BK ROG Esports
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