How to make bets on the matches of national football teams?
Yuriy SheremetMatches of the native national team at the World Championship or the European Championship arouse interest among every person who even is not fond of football. Supporting your national team is a patriotic thing. Due to the great mass of fans, bookmakers provide various options for betting, trying to attract new clients in all the possible ways.
It is also interesting that bookmakers provide odds in the line on such matches, referring only to the popularity of the national team. So unexpected results happen frequently at such tournaments when bets with high odds are victorious. However, some bettors continue being naive, believe, and rely on the odds provided by bookmakers.
In today’s article, we will consider how to make bets on the matches of national teams.
The group stage before the World Championship or the Euro
First of all, national teams are divided into a few groups where they play for the further slot in the tournament or decider matches. Usually, there are very sensations in the group stage, considering the strong difference in power and the level of teams. For example, the obvious favorites succeed, trying to achieve victory in every upcoming match, having earned important points.
The average-level national teams try to compete with direct opponents for the second places, playing defensively in the majority of cases. And the obvious outsiders of the group try to achieve the highest places, which impacts the further prize money for the participation in the group stage. During the group stage, it is worth considering the following indicators to choose a bet correctly:
- The levels of the teams. Obviously, first of all, it is worth comparing the power of the opponents, choosing a strong team on your own. It is important to consider only the start rosters because options with an injury or a disqualification of a row of football players should be excluded.
- The second moment is the selected tactic for the upcoming match. The tactic can be found out if you watch the previous matches of the teams or read the interview with the main coaches. The easiest way is to look at a scheme for a match and the first minutes of the match.
- Motivation. Definitely, every team comes to the field to beat its opponent. However, if one team has extraordinary motivation (for example, points are important in a particular match to advance to the playoffs), it will be better to choose the motivated team, which needs a victory in such a match.
- The factor of the stadium. When the power and motivation are equal, the option of the house team should be considered in detail. The factor of the home stadium plays an important role in the group stage.
Considering the above-mentioned factors, appropriate matches can be easily found for future bets.
Matches at the international tournaments
After the qualification, teams proceed to the main international tournaments, which is divided into two phases:
- The group stage where every team is competing for the first two or at most three places in the group.
- The playoff bracket (elimination rounds). In this case, a team plays every match like it could be its last one at the tournament.
First of all, let’s consider possible pitfalls in the group stage where four teams will have to play three matches against every opponent.
The remarkable thing is that bookmakers initially choose two-three favorites to advance to the playoffs. It is not worth placing long-term bets on the advancement because there are regular surprises due to the limited number of matches. For example, let’s take a look at Group D at the 2014 World Championship when both favorites of the group (Italy and England) were successfully eliminated from the group stage (Costa Rica and Uruguay proceeded further).
It is important to understand that every team will fight till the last moment, trying to make the minimum number of mistakes in a match. And usually, results are minimal in such matches. Equal teams play extremely accurately, relying on defense and ball possession. There are also no obvious things in the matches between a favorite and an underdog because the weak team is motivated to earn points. In this case, the role of motivation is played by the prize money, which will be received from the native federation. That’s why it is worth considering the victories of the favorites at such tournaments accurately. It is way more profitable to play on the side of the underestimated underdogs.
When teams make it to the playoffs, there are no weak teams at all. There will definitely be «the dark horses», which will be estimated in the wrong way by a bookmaker, due to its weakness and the level of play. But it is important for a bettor to consider this factor because a weak national team has managed to pass the group stage and is motivated to prevail. In such cases, it is also profitable to play on the side of the underdog rather than the favorite. Betting on the possible performance in the match is a coin toss. Teams can demonstrate a lot of goal moments or just close in their penalty areas, waiting for the opponent’s mistake.
Starting from the quarterfinal matches, it is worth betting only in the live mode. It will be almost impossible to predict the possible scenario or the nature of the match before the start of the match because only coaches know how teams will be playing in the upcoming match.
Commercial and secondary tournaments
Nowadays, there are a few secondary tournaments where a row of weak national teams fight for the cup no one wants. At such tournaments, it is worth looking at the teams, which play at the home arena. Also, the winners of the previous seasons should be considered. One national team may achieve victory in the formal tournament regularly, while the rest of the teams are just a front for viewers.
Friendly matches
Professional bettors know that betting on friendly matches is not profitable in the long-term run. Names or clubs play no role here. Even the leading national teams are not afraid to lose in such matches because the main objective of such matches is to create synergy and implement new football players into the main roster. It is not worth considering such matches for further bets.
However, if you have a desire to bet on a friendly match, you should look at the following situations:
- The upcoming match of the favorite of the match. Usually, strong teams try to have friendly matches before important matches to have an optimal shape in the match. However, the main roster will not play for 90 minutes and every player on the main roster will be limited to 30-45 minutes on the field. Under these conditions, the opponent, which is an underdog of the match, should be considered. As a rule, a plus handicap on the underdog is the best choice for a potential bet.
- The series of matches, lack of time for rest. The leading national teams, as a rule, try to have matches in a few days to get new football players into the game as much as possible and test various tactics. One tactic will be used for every match but football players will change from half to half. In this situation, the selected tactic should be taken into consideration. If a tactic is focused on defense, you should choose Total Under. If a team plays attacking football, forgetting about its goal line, Total Over will be the best choice.
In different scenarios, we recommend skipping friendly matches.
Conclusion
In conclusion, we want to notice that betting on national teams is profitable when a bettor knows clearly about the selected teams, possible rosters, and the possible in-game scenario. Otherwise considering a brief analysis and a blind choice of results, a bettor will only lose in a long-term perspective.
Yuriy Sheremet – Expert in mobile gaming and esports among shooters and MOBA games.
At EGamersWorld, Yuriy, as in 2020 when he joined the portal, works with content, albeit with adjustments to his area of responsibility.