How to make bets on football after a sending-off of a player?
Yuriy SheremetAs you know, a sending-off of a football player makes a strong impact on the further situation in a match in football. The balance of power, substitutions of football players, and the change of tactics are the usual things after a sending-off. The team, which plays in the minority, will try to focus on the current result, playing in counterattacks, trying to save its goal line untouched.
Of course, odds in bookmaker companies change rapidly in the favor of the second team after a sending-off. During the first minutes, a bookmaker is trying to close the line to understand the consequences of a standing off. In particular, odds on scoring and the result of the match. The first thing, which comes to mind for every bettor, is to bet on the victory of the team, which is in the majority. However, this is not entirely correct. It is important to predict the end of the match and the balance of power accurately to place the right bet.
In today’s article, we will consider how to make bets after a sending-off in a football match in the right way.
Options of sendings-off
Let’s determine three situations when there is a sending-off:
- A football player is sent off being on the roster of the favorite of the match.
- A sending-off happens in a weak team.
- A sending-off happens in a match between two equal teams.
Let’s look at every further situation in detail.
A sending-off in the favorite of the match
The first situation is related to the occasion when a football player is sent off in the favorite of the match. However, betting on the victory of the underdog even if it is in the majority, is ridiculous. The first thing you should understand is that it will be profitable for the underdog to earn at least one point in the match against the top team. Even when the score is 0:0 and the outsider is in the majority, it is unlikely that it will lead but it will keep playing defensively, trying to save its points.
In such a situation, it will be more profitable for a bettor to bet on Total Under in the match. Also, it is worth considering an option with a Handicap 0 bet on the underdog. Definitely, the favorite will continue possessing a ball and trying to create goal moments. However, there will be way fewer such moments because the main coach will have not to risk, leaving his defense in its entire lineup. The coach will be likely to sacrifice an offense player, which will influence the further goal moments. It is worth relying on Total Under or the minimal victory of the favorite in such a situation.
The following situation represents a minimal victory of the favorite. For example, the favorite is leading with a score of 1:0 but the team has a sending-off. Of course, the underdog will try to even the score and the main coach of the favorite will only have to «close» the team in its penalty area, playing mainly through ball possession and trying to save the result. In such situations, it is also profitable to make bets on Total Under. The chances that the losing underdog, even being in the majority, will be able to create goal moments near the opponent’s goal line are low.
The last moment is when the favorite is losing but being in the minority. Definitely, the strong team has no choice but to run and attack, trying to even the match, at least. In doing so, the underdog, which is leading the score, will close in its penalty area and try to catch the opponent during counterattacks. So there are the chances that both teams can score a goal at the end of the match. The favorite will attack, opening its back, and the weak team will try to oppose the opponent in counterattacks. In this case, a scored goal is very possible in the last 15-20 minutes of the match. However, it is difficult to predict what team will score a goal first. So it will be optimal to place a live bet on Total Over:
- When the score is 0:1 – TO 1,5
- When the score is 1:2 – TO 3,5
A sending-off in the underdog
The situation is way more interesting when a football player is sent off on the roster of the weak team. Let’s consider three cases in this situation:
- A sending-off when a score is even. In this case, the favorite of the match, being in the majority, will try to score a goal. And as a rule, the team managed to do so. The main thing is to consider the time left till the end of the match. It is possible to score the victorious goal in 10-15 minutes. But if there are a few minutes left till the end of the match, it will be better to miss such a match.
- A sending-off when an underdog is winning. If the underdog of the match is leading during the match but playing in the majority, you should not doubt that the favorite will, at least, achieve an even score. It is better to bet on Handicap 0 of the favorite. If you want to play using high odds, it will be better to bet on a clear victory in a match. It is unlikely that the underdog will score a goal being in the majority.
- A sending-off when an underdog is losing. Bettors skip such matches in the majority of cases due to the fact that it is impossible to predict the result of such a match. If the favorite is leading, being in the majority, the leading team might both save the score, playing safely, and continue attacking the enemy’s goal line. In this case, it is important to watch the next 5-10 minutes of the match after a sending-off to realize the situation on the field.
A sending-off in the match between equal opponents
Sendings off happen in hard matches in the majority of cases when every team expects to earn points. As a rule, this is a match between two almost equal teams, which play defensively. Here, we will consider three situations, which happen during a sending-off of a football player:
- A sending-off in the team, which is leading with a minimal score. The first and the most popular case is when the team is leading the score and trying to defend the goal line from attacks. The opponent achieves the advantage in the number of players in one of such moments. Of course, after a sending-off, the team will continue attacking, creating the maximum number of goal moments. In such cases, it is important to consider the situation in the match because the possibility of the scored goal is equal to 50%, considering the time left till the end of the match. If it is clear in the game that both teams continue playing defensive football, it will be better to look at the option Total Under. If the team plays through attacks, creating dangerous moments, your choice will be Total Over. It will not be profitable to choose exact results or handicaps because even the leading team can increase its advantage.
- A sending-off in the team, which is losing on the score. When a player is sent off in the losing team, the second team will try to play using the score, catching the opponent when it makes mistakes. In such a situation, it will be better to consider options with Total Under.
- A sending-off when the score is even. The third situation can be compared to the first one when the possible situation will be clear in a few minutes of the match. It is important to understand that both teams will not want to risk and will play, according to the score. And the team, which is leading in terms of the roster, will not play attacking football, playing as accurately as possible near its goal line. The chance that the goal will be scored is similar to the first case – 50%.
Conclusion
The above-mentioned moments will help a bettor to evaluate the situation in the match in the right way, having made a considered bet on the result of the match. We want to notice additionally that the analysis of the chosen match is important. It is important to understand initially the motivation and team tactics in the game. Only an accurate analysis will help a bettor to make the right bet on a certain match.
Yuriy Sheremet – Expert in mobile gaming and esports among shooters and MOBA games.
At EGamersWorld, Yuriy, as in 2020 when he joined the portal, works with content, albeit with adjustments to his area of responsibility.