How is ball possession considered in football betting?
Yuriy SheremetStatistical measures are extremely important in modern football, including one of the most important and brightest, ball possession.
A few years of domination of the national team of Spain at the main football tournaments and Barcelona at the club level made many people believe that the perfect victorious team should possess a ball during a high percentage of the time.
Fans prefer to see their team dominating an opponent, possessing a ball, and tiring the opponents. Journalists and experts discuss the class and skills of the team, which confidently intercepts a ball from the opponent. Club owners, sponsors, management of teams like a spectacular and combination play, which can be hardly demonstrated when football players have no ball. Bookmaker companies, which consider the chances of the competing sides maximally as dry and objectively as possible, will consider the team, which possesses a ball more, to be the favorite rather than the team that comes «to compete ahead and stay back», which loves to take its chances in counterattacks: there can be no such moments in a match or their minimum number will not turn into quality.
The importance of ball possession
Anyway, there is the general pattern that declares that the team to possess a ball prevails more frequently. But there are unexpected occasions at various competitions, tournament stages from time to time. For example, the national team of Greece at the 2004 UEFA European Football Championship: its football players’ ball possession was below 50% in all matches but they managed to become the winners of the tournament, having surprised not just fans and experts but probably themselves.
Victories with a score of 1-0 reflect a lot in terms of the game strategy. Or the frequent failures in the Champions League of such teams that play in «ball possession» like Barcelona, Bayern, Manchester City from Inter, Chelsea, or Atletico, for which 25-40% of ball possession was enough to achieve victory. The scores of 1-0 or 2-0 reflect that the favorite, which was possessing a ball during two-thirds of the match, missed two or three counterattacks, which were perfectly used by its opponent.
The extremely conspicuous example from the beginning of the 2010s was the 5-0 defeat of Barcelona against Real in El-Classico when Guardiola’s team was possessing a ball for 70% of the time but was beaten significantly. But after all, the Spanish El-Classico is a battle with its personal history.
The examples of Wales or Iceland, which made it to UEFA Euro 2016 mainly due to the expansion of the number of participants, demonstrate that ball possession is not only the defining factor of the success: Iceland with 37% of ball possession passed through many authorities and advanced to the quarterfinal, Wales, which had less than 50% of possession, made it to the semi-final of the tournament. Such teams understand that the level of their players will not allow them to control a ball and create their play, they know that their chance is in counterattacks right to the goal line of the overexcited opponent and there were the well-trained, fast, and strong guys who were ready to compete for a long pass or run from the middle of the field to the face-to-face clash with a goalkeeper in these teams. In this case, they practiced the skills that were necessary for the objectives – accurate defense, mutual backups, physical endurance, and the ability to create a dangerous moment in counterattacks and realize it with maximum efficiency. With this style, these teams will not need to hold a ball for long, a ball should not be controlled frequently, the final ball possession is not important for them.
It is more difficult to evaluate the chances to succeed when there are teams, which prefer offensive football, which is built around ball possession. Frequently, their initial and main objective is to control a ball and start making their moments but someone prevails in achieving their own objectives more in a particular match. And in this case, the statistics after a pretty long period of the match, for example, after the first half, can show the unexpectedly low percentage of one of the sides. As a rule, it demonstrates that the opponent made this team play not its game, its players were weaker than the opponents at that specific moment. And not every team is capable of rebuilding its tactic and turning the match upside down.
There are the hidden aspects of a dry percentage of ball possession. For example, when the chances to prevail are evaluated, how and where the team controls a ball should be considered: how Barcelona controls a ball on the opponent’s side of the field or how Rostov controls on its own side. Obviously, it is way less possible to score a goal from your side. Or if a team controls a ball more than a half of the match but does not shoot a goal, its chances to succeed can hardly be called significant. There are no victories without the scored goals and ball possession will just mark the weak sides of the team.
There is another extreme: a team is dominating on the field, playing offensive football, does not give a ball to its opponent, reaching the enemy’s gates regularly, creates dangerous moments, and hits every few minutes but it just can’t score a goal. Probably, the team has no talented forward, or it has but it is absent due to his injury or disqualification, or it is just not their day, week, month, etc. And the opposing team dives into counterattacks, creates fouls, and has a master to realize it – and it wins the match with just one ball passing the goal line, having a minimum percentage of ball possession.
The other moment, which explains the high percentage of ball possession can be physiological characteristics of the football roster. If a team has more slim and short players, especially among forwards, there is no need to build your play around long passes, crosses, or wing passes in order to compete on the second floor, headers or passes to a partner. In such teams, moments are created with the help of short and middle passes, a ball is almost dribbled to the opponent’s goal line - ball possession will be more than 50%.
At the same time, football players need technical skills and an appropriate physical condition to possess a ball. If players are not good enough in these components, the chances to reach a high percentage of ball possession are low, a team will probably build a counter-attacking strategy.
Conclusion
Football is an unpredictable game, for which it is loved by millions. When evaluating the opponent’s chances, when considering the strong sides of every opponent, ball possession should be considered but its importance should not be overestimated. There are many examples of teams, which prefer offensive football with dominating ball possession and achieve nice results with its help, but there are lots of defensive teams, which have built their play in this way, not due to their weakness but to use their features and the weaknesses of their opponents. Such teams frequently reach the leading positions, leaving no chances to the top teams and moving to the ranks of favorites. Ball possession can’t guarantee a victory.
In addition, ball possession is the main indicator in the analysis of the chances of the competing sides. In football, ball possession is a very important factor. But such an important indicator should be analyzed in the right and comprehensive way.
Yuriy Sheremet – Expert in mobile gaming and esports among shooters and MOBA games.
At EGamersWorld, Yuriy, as in 2020 when he joined the portal, works with content, albeit with adjustments to his area of responsibility.