Match Prediction: Natus Vincere - GIANTX | VALORANT

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The group stage of VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 1 continues. In the tournament, which offers three slots for the upcoming VALORANT Masters Toronto 2025 and VCT Points, 12 of the strongest teams from the EMEA region are fighting it out.

Among the participants are Natus Vincere (NAVI) and GIANTX. Both teams have played their first two matches: currently, NAVI have one loss and one win. In turn, the team GIANTX has two losses.

Let’s take a closer look at the results of both teams and determine who between NAVI and GIANTX will prove stronger and increase their chances of securing a slot at the upcoming major tournament – VALORANT Masters Toronto 2025.

It only makes sense to evaluate the teams based on their results shown in this VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 1 tournament. Because the breaks between tournaments are huge, and during this time, team rosters and playing form can change significantly.

Form of NAVI

Let’s start with NAVI, who go into this match as favorites, with odds of 1.76 to win.

During the offseason, NAVI made significant roster changes. From the previous lineup, Kirill "ANGE1" Karasev and Andrey "Shao" Kiprsky remained. They were joined by Emirhan "hiro" Kat from fnatic, Ugur "Ruxic" Gyuc from Fire Flux Esports, and GianFranco "koalanoob" Potestio from M80. The new coach is Vincent "Happy" Schopenhauer, known for his success with M80, whom he led twice to second place at VCT Ascension in the Americas division.

NAVI roster:

• Kirill "ANGE1" Karasev
• Emirhan "hiro" Kat
• Ugur "Ruxic" Gyuc
• GianFranco "koalanoob" Potestio
• Andrey "Shao" Kiprsky
• Coach: Vincent "Happy" Schopenhauer

NAVI’s recent matches:

Natus Vincere’s first match at VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 1 was against fnatic. This was a principled opponent for NAVI, as fnatic had eliminated them in the previous VCT 2025: EMEA Kickoff tournament with a score of 2:1. As for the current VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 1, fnatic defeated ANGE1 and the team with a clean 2:0. On the first map, Split (fnatic’s pick), fnatic crushed NAVI 13:5. On the second map, Fracture, NAVI gave away a comeback when they were close to victory and lost from an 11:7 lead, ending the game 13:11 in favor of fnatic.

NAVI’s second match was against the outsiders Apeks. Despite this, the black-and-yellow squad needed three maps to win the match. The first map was Lotus, where Apeks managed to win 13:10 even though NAVI picked it. The second map was Haven, where NAVI showed a decent attack, winning the first half 8:4, which helped them win 13:11 and force the decider – Split. On the deciding map, ANGE1 and company crushed Apeks. NAVI won the first half 9:3 and finished the map confidently at 13:6.

NAVI’s map pool

Natus Vincere has a permaban on the Ascent map. They prefer to pick Fracture, and if it’s banned, most likely they’ll go with Lotus.

Summary of NAVI

Based on what we’ve seen from NAVI at VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 1, the team has serious issues with agent selection. Natus Vincere completely ignore such a strong meta agent as Tejo and instead play Fade. You could say it’s cool they stick to their guns, but this refusal to use Tejo doesn’t bring them success. Besides Tejo, NAVI also picked Chamber on Lotus, with koalanoob playing the role and making many mistakes without contributing to the team. Also, they rarely play Yoru, who is used by all strong teams and has proven effective. Instead of Yoru, NAVI often go for Raze. They picked Yoru only once – on Haven.

Form of GIANTX

Now let’s move on to GIANTX, who are slight underdogs in this match with odds of 1.99 to win.

GIANTX also updated their roster ahead of the 2025 season. Kirill "Cloud" Nekhozhin and Semyon "purp0" Borchev stayed on. They were joined by Milos "Westside" Duda from Diamant Esports, Emil "runneR" Traykovski from Team Vitality, and Thomas "tomaszy" Machado from Karmine Corp. The head coach remains Daniil "Pipson" Meshcheryakov, with Jan "wayLander" Rakhkonen as his assistant.

GIANTX roster:

• Kirill "Cloud" Nekhozhin
• Semyon "purp0" Borchev
• Milos "Westside" Duda
• Emil "runneR" Traykovski
• Thomas "tomaszy" Machado

Coaching staff:

• Head coach: Daniil "Pipson" Meshcheryakov
• Assistant coach: Jan "wayLander" Rakhkonen

GIANTX’s recent matches:

At VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 1, GIANTX faced very strong opponents, but still showed resistance in one of the matches. Their first opponent was the strongest team at this stage – Team Vitality. The match ended 2:0 in favor of Derke and company. The first map was Split, where GIANTX managed only 3 rounds on defense in the first half. However, after the side switch, they fought back a bit, and Vitality won 13:9. The second map, Lotus, was GIANTX’s pick, but here Vitality left them no chance – winning 10 rounds on attack in the first half. GIANTX lost the pistol round after the switch and suffered a crushing defeat of 13:2.

Their second opponent was Team Heretics. This time, the match didn’t end in a sweep, and the teams played all three maps. On the first map, Haven, Heretics crushed GIANTX 13:3, not letting them win a single round on attack. The second map, Split – picked by Heretics – was a real show. Even after a 10:2 loss on their strong side, GIANTX staged an incredible comeback on defense, winning 11 rounds. Heretics managed just one round, leading to a 13:11 win for GIANTX. On the third map, Heretics didn’t tilt after that comeback and managed to close the series. GIANTX’s attack on Lotus didn’t succeed, and they won only 4 rounds in the first half. Final score on the decider was 13:8 in favor of Team Heretics.

GIANTX’s map pool

GIANTX have a permaban on Icebox. They prefer to pick Haven and Lotus.

Summary of GIANTX

Overall, GIANTX shows promise as a solid team with some creative ideas. While their current record stands at 0:2, there are few teams in the tournament capable of putting up a fight against powerhouses like Team Vitality and Team Heretics. GIANTX still has a good chance of defeating the black-and-yellow squad in their current form. Westside and his team, on the other hand, avoid overly experimental agent picks, which should work in their favor.

Head-to-head history: NAVI vs GIANTX

Last season, the teams met twice. NAVI won both matches.

Match prediction: NAVI vs GIANTX – VCT 2025: EMEA Stage 1

In this match, we will most likely see the maps Fracture, Haven, and Lotus as the decider. NAVI are expected to win Fracture, but their agent choices might backfire on the second map. It’s not fair to call GIANTX clear underdogs – they just had a hard time against the top teams. On the other hand, NAVI haven’t been playing their best, and we’re likely to see all three maps. It’s hard to believe NAVI will beat GIANTX 2:0 – they’ll most likely need all three. And anything can happen on the third map.

Based on all of the above, and after analyzing the current form and map pools, we recommend betting on Total Maps Over 2.5 – the odds are good at 1.92. A riskier but rewarding bet would be GIANTX to win 2:1, with odds of 3.69.

Conclusion: Total maps over 2.5.