Match Prediction: Apeks - ex-MAD Lions | Counter-Strike (CS2)

The Elisa Invitational Spring 2022 tournament has moved on to the playoffs and the teams are already in full swing to reach the final, where they can compete for the main reward of $25,000 and an invitation to Elisa Masters Espoo 2022 with a prize pool of $200,000. Apeks and ex-MAD Lions will face off in one of the quarterfinal matches. It is this match that I would like to pay attention to, look at the advantages of a particular team and talk about what kind of bet here may be appropriate.

Apeks Game Uniform

Speaking about the composition of Apeks, one cannot fail to mention the recent arrival of AcilioN to the ranks of the European team. The roster was completed on June 4 and the team has been training and playing ever since. The team played in several matches of Elisa Invitational Spring 2022 and fought four times as part of ESEA Advanced Season 41 Europe. The win rate indicates that the team is in a good playing shape. The Apeks have only lost two out of eight matches. The team beat 1PIN, Tricked Esport, BLINK, BLUEJAYS, KOVA, and Into the Breach, while failing to win against Sprout and BLUEJAYS. Of course, the players from the ex-MAD Lions are stronger opponents compared to the Apeks' past rivals, but the same BLUEJAYS cannot be called frankly weak. It is worth noting that the Apeks advanced from the group stage to the playoffs with a 3-1 record. Looking ahead, I will say that this is better than 3-2 for ex-MAD Lions. HLTV ranked Apeks at number 57 in their top. In general, taking into account all of the above, I rate the Apeks game form as quite good and quite competitive.

History of recent Apeks meetings

ESEA Advanced Season 41 Europe

Apeks 2-1 1pin

Apeks 2-0 Tricked Esport

Apeks 1-2 BLUEJAYS

Apeks 2-0 BLINK

Elisa Invitational Spring 2022

Apeks 2-0 BLUEJAYS

Apeks 2-0 KOVA

Apeks 1-2 Sprout

Apeks 2-0 Into the Breach

Best Apeks Maps

Inferno - 100.0%

Nuke - 81.8%

Dust 2 - 66.7%

Mirage - 63.6%

Overpass - 62.5%

Ancient - 22.2%

Vertigo - 0.0%

ex-MAD Lions uniform

The history of recent matches, position in the rankings and the level of teams that the ex-MAD Lions players played against is similar to what we saw in the case of Apeks. The team is ranked 42 in the list of the best CS:GO teams according to HLTV. As part of the Elisa Invitational Spring 2022, ex-MAD Lions showed a good performance, but not as good as Apeks. The latter, as we recall, finished their way in the main Swiss stage with a 3-1 result, while the ex-MAD Lions advanced to the playoffs with a 3-2 score. Woro2k also played with his teammates recently in REPUBLEAGUE Season 3. At the time of writing the forecast, ex-MAD Lions still haven't played with ECSTATIC and have only reached the semi-finals so far. In recent matches, they beat more or less strong opponents in the face of MOUZ NXT, Eternal Fire and others, but could not defeat Bad News Eagles, ECSTATIC and Enterprise. In general, their game form, in my opinion, is also not bad, but it is also impossible to call it much better than that of Apeks.

Match history ex-MAD Lions

REPUBLEAGUE Season 3

ex-MAD Lions 2-0 MOUZ NXT

ex-MAD Lions 2-1 Eternal Fire

ex-MAD Lions 2-0 K23

ex-MAD Lions 0-2 Bad News Eagles

ex-MAD Lions 2-0 Eternal Fire

Elisa Invitational Spring 2022

ex-MAD Lions 2-0 BLUEJAYS

ex-MAD Lions 0-2 Enterprise

ex-MAD Lions 1-2 ECSTATIC

ex-MAD Lions 2-0 Esports Club Kyiv

ex-MAD Lions 2-1 SINNERS

Best ex-MAD Lions cards

Mirage - 80.0%

Inferno - 66.7%

Dust 2 - 66.7%

Ancient - 50.0%

Nuke - 50.0%

Overpass - 50.0%

Vertigo - 50.0%

Conclusion

Experts from bookmakers believe that the game will go on equal terms, but still lean a little towards the victory of ex-MAD Lions, which equates the odds of the favorite to 1.80. This is equivalent to a ~52% chance of winning. I agree that the battle will be even, but I'm not at all sure that the ex-MAD Lions will win. If you pay attention to the map pool of teams, you can see that Woro2k and the company play Mirage very well, but they sag in the rest of the maps, although they are able to show class there. The trump card up Apeks' sleeve is Inferno, where they haven't lost at all lately. Nuke with an 81.8% win rate also looks like a very strong card. All this tells me that Apeks has a good chance of winning this match. However, I also find the Total Over 2.5 cards market attractive. Mappool says the Apeks should be playing well, and the ex-MAD Lions' level of play ensures the team won't go down without a fight. In the case of odds with the market on Total Cards, we see a coinflip - the chance of passing on Over or Under is equal to 50%. It seems to me that the most appropriate solution in this situation would be to bet on Total more than 2.5 cards with a coefficient of 1.87

Final bet: Total cards over 2.5 with odds of 1.87